Updated October 29, 2019
MAINE PRESIDENTIAL OVERVIEW
Often a forgotten state in Presidential elections, Maine holds not one, but two special electoral college quirks that may decide the entire Presidency. First, Maine does not award their four electoral college votes as winner-take-all, like nearly every other state. Instead, Maine awards two of its electoral votes to whoever wins the majority of votes statewide and an electoral vote each for the respective winner of each of Maine’s two Congressional districts. That election quirk alone makes Maine compelling, since a candidate could lose the total popular vote and yet still pick up an electoral vote, as Donald Trump did in 2016. However, the most unique aspect of voting in Maine is its Ranked Choice System. Under Ranked Choice, voters rank their choices for President instead of just voting for one single candidate. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, the candidate with the fewest first-place votes gets eliminated. Those who voted for the eliminated candidate will then have their second voting choice counted. The second choice votes of everyone who voted for the eliminated candidate then gets distributed to the remaining candidates. This will continue until a candidate gets a majority of the vote. This situation happened in 2018, in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin received a plurality of the first preference votes but failed to secure an outright 50% majority. Second and third preference votes were then counted and came in overwhelmingly in favor of Democrat challenger Jared Golden. Golden was subsequently awarded the victory by a margin of 50.62% to 49.38%. Based on the 2018 results, it would appear that Ranked Choice will favor the eventual Democrat nominee. Neither Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump reached 50% of the vote in 2016 and Ranked Choice may very well determine who wins Maine in 2020. The eventual Democratic Presidential nominee will start as a moderate favorite in Maine and Ranked Choice may push the Pine Tree State into the safe Democrat category.
The Presidential race in Maine will likely get very little coverage, but the state’s Senate race will be one of the most closely watched battles in the entire country. It is too early to determine if Republican Susan Collins’ vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh will affect the Presidential race but expect millions of dollars in outside spending, from both parties, to flood into the state.
10/29/2019
By: Joshua Shancer