Updated October 29, 2019
2020 PRESIDENTIAL SNAPSHOT
Michigan is nearly a carbon copy of Pennsylvania. Donald Trump won narrowly in 2016, only for Michigan Republicans to get gored ten times over in 2018. Democrat Debbie Stabenow won reelection by a 52.3% to 45.8% margin over a strong challenge from Republican challenger John James. The Democrats also retook two House seats and threatened other previously thought to be safe Republican districts in the state.
In total, Democrats won the Congressional vote in the state 52.33% to 44.65%. Democrats also flipped everything in sight on the state level including the Governor’s mansion, Attorney General and Secretary of State by wide margins. The state level defeats for the Republicans are most concerning for Trump’s chances in Michigan. Republicans had held the above positions for 8, 16 and 24 years respectively, meaning that 2018 represented more than just a good year for Democrats in the state.
Democrats in Michigan took seats that had previously been out of reach for them. This is an indicator that Trump’s tariff policies, among other issues, are harming his chances in Michigan. Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016, and absolutely cannot be counted out. In a state, however, that he won by the hair of his toupee, it is difficult to find definitive math that would point to another victory for him over the eventual Democrat nominee.