Minnesota

2020 PRESIDENTIAL SNAPSHOT

It is largely forgotten, but Hillary Clinton carried Minnesota by only 1.5% in 2016. Since then, Democrats have largely won the major races in the state, such as both U.S. Senate seats, the Governor’s mansion, and Attorney General. Minnesota Democrats even flipped two House seats from the Republicans in the Minneapolis suburbs. So why is Minnesota a Toss Up and not a Leans Democrat state? The reason is that Minnesota’s rural and Union populations, once Democrat strongholds, have swung heavily towards the Republicans in recent years. Democrats may have flipped two House seats, but the truth is that Republicans also flipped two House seats from the Democrats. Minnesota’s 1st and 8th Congressional Districts, which are largely rural, were both won by Republicans and were the only two Congressional Districts that Republicans flipped nationwide in the entire 2018 Election cycle. Democrats will be buoyed by Minneapolis’ liberal center and liberal trending suburbs, but they will also have to avoid letting Trump run up the score in rural areas. Current Presidential candidate and Minnesota native, Amy Klobuchar, could be on the short list as a Vice Presidential nominee. A ticket with her would immediately swing the state into the Leans Democrat category. For now, though the trends suggest that Minnesota is not as safe for the Democrats as many analysts believe. For these reasons, Minnesota will begin 2020 as a Toss Up.