Ohio

2020 PRESIDENTIAL SNAPSHOT

Make no mistake, Ohio is trending away from the Democrats. Of the states currently in the Leans Republican category, Ohio is likely to produce the largest margin of victory for Trump. Although Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection in 2018, the Democrats also lost the Governor’s race and several winnable Congressional races. In 2016, Donald Trump won Ohio by a 51.69% to 43.56% margin and there has been little indication that the Democrats have made or will make a significant push to retake the state. 

Democrats on the state level had trouble outraising their Republican opponents in 2018 and it won’t get any easier in 2020. One of the main problems for Democrats in Ohio has been the decline of population in the state’s urban centers. These urban areas are the heart of the Democrat base in the state and that base has been shrinking. 

Ohio was also one the biggest benefactors of the Republican’s 2017 Tax Bill. Ohio has very cheap housing, relative to the nation, meaning that prior to 2017, the SALT deduction for state income and property taxes was rarely used in the state. The SALT deduction allows taxpayers to deduct from their tax basis the amount of property and state income taxes that they paid for the year. The 2017 tax bill capped the SALT deduction to an amount of only $10,000. Now, taxpayers can only deduct a maximum of $10,000 from their taxes under the SALT deductions. This has put an extremely high burden on states with high property values such as New York, New Jersey and California. Residents of those states regularly pay $10,000 in property taxes per year before even factoring in state income taxes. This has meant that these states are now able to deduct fewer taxes post 2017 than they could prior. 

Ohioans, with their relatively average state income tax and low property taxes were insulated from this tax change. Ohio received the benefits of lower tax rates and a higher standard deduction without having to give up anything in return. This has given many Ohioans the view that the 2017 tax bill was successful. Voters who voted Republican in 2016 stayed in the Republican column in 2018 as a result, Donald Trump will begin 2020 as the favorite to win Ohio.