2020 Snapshot: Pennsylvania

Of the blue wall states that Donald Trump won in 2016, Pennsylvania has to be the most puzzling of them all. Democrats had previously won every Presidential election in the state since 1988 and even flipped the Governor’s mansion from red to blue in 2014. In 2016, Trump rode massive rural support and Hillary Clinton backlash to victory.

Ever since Trump won in 2016, however, it has been one disaster after another for Pennsylvania Republicans. First, Democrat Conor Lamb won a special election in Pennsylvania’s then 18th Congressional District in an upset over Republican Rick Saccone. Next, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down the state’s congressional map, due to a gerrymander that unfairly benefitted the Republicans. A new map was then put into place by the Court and the Republicans saw their 13 to 5 Congressional majority shrink to a 9 to 9 tie. Under the surface the results were even more disastrous for Republicans as Democrats took 55% of all votes cast in Congressional races.

Even worse for Pennsylvania Republicans, in 2018 incumbent Democrat Governor Tom Wolf blasted his Republican challenger, Scott Wagner, 57.8% to 40.7%. Incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey Jr. rubbed further salt in the wound by trouncing the hapless Lou Barletta by a 55.7% to 42.6% margin. Support for the Republicans, especially on the local level in 2018, completely collapsed in the Philadelphia suburbs, and these voters seem unlikely to swing back to Donald Trump. As long as Democrats can avoid allowing Trump to run up massive vote totals in the rural parts of the state, they should be poised to reclaim Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. Look for Pennsylvania to return to the Democrats in 2020.