2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: STATE BY STATE PREVIEW- PART 2

With the 2020 Presidential Election fast approaching both Democrats and Republicans are gearing up for one last furious push to the finish. 2020 has seen the most unorthodox campaign season in generations and I cannot recall any election in the past 50 years where there has been such a discrepancy between the polls and public perception of where the race truly stands. One thing that appears to be a certainty is that turnout in 2020 will be much higher than that in 2016. Even more important is that the higher turnout isn’t limited to a few states or a region but has instead been seen across the country.

This is Part 2 of 2 of my breakdown of every battleground State in the 2020 Election. Part 2 will feature Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin. The battleground states of Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Maine CD-2, Minnesota, Nevada and Ohio are featured in Part 1.

Prediction: Joe Biden wins 290 Electoral Votes and the Popular Vote by 4.5%.

Georgia

Prediction: Donald Trump wins Georgia by 0.5-3%. 

Voter suppression, conflict of interest charges and legal battles ran amok in Georgia’s 2018 Gubernatorial race. Republican Brian Kemp narrowly held off a relentless challenge from up and coming Democrat Stacey Abrams by a 50.3% to 48.7% margin to win and Georgia figures to be even closer in 2020. Donald Trump will go into election as the narrowest of favorites to win Georgia.

Donald Trump’s margin for error in Georgia is incredibly small. Georgia has been slowly trending towards the Democrats in recent years and Atlanta’s vast and highly educated suburban population is quickly moving away from the Republicans. Even worse for Trump is that he has been unable to put Joe Biden away in the polls and a Biden victory is within the margin of error. Trump’s campaign seemingly ignored Georgia for most of the 2020 cycle as he focused instead on the Rust Belt. Compounding this is that down ballot Republicans have been badly outraised by their Democratic counterparts.  

Georgia has the ability to be a major tipping point in the 2020 election. There are few scenarios where Trump could withstand a loss in Georgia. A loss for Trump would doom his campaign unless he won all of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina which will be a tall task as it is. For Biden, Georgia is more of a luxury than a necessity, but a win would all but guarantee him the Presidency. 

Despite the negatives, the fundamentals in Georgia still slightly favor Donald Trump in 2020. Trump runs well in Georgia’s non-black rural communities and he still maintains measurable support in Atlanta’s far reaching suburbs. If Trump can steal some votes among black males, then it will insulate him somewhat from the heavy losses he will take in Atlanta. Don’t be surprised if Georgia produces the narrowest margin of any non-rust belt state in the country. 

Michigan

Prediction: Joe Biden wins Michigan by 0.25-3%. 

Of all the former blue wall states that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, Michigan may have stung the most. Clinton had massively underperformed in the 2016 Primary, but seemingly ignored warning signs that she may be in trouble in the State. At the time Democratic candidates had won every Presidential election in the state since 1988, and Clinton was leading in polling nearly every step of the way. Of course, Clinton would infamously lose to Donald Trump in part due to low turnout in Detroit’s urban core especially among black voters. Michigan’s vast rural areas and small industrial cities also helped to bury Clinton in the state.  

In 2020, a similar situation is playing out with Biden leading in the polls by a small but seemingly large enough margin. For Democrats and Republicans, however, the polling certainly feels like déjà vu. The difference in 2020 though is that Biden’s support exceeds that of 50% in the polling averages which is something that Clinton never achieved. Democrats should also be heartened that Michigan elected a Democrat Governor in the 2018 Midterms and further flipped two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. 

All is not completely good news for Joe Biden though. The highly publicized State Capital protests against the Coronavirus lockdown have animated the State’s Republican base. Michigan’s rural areas are also likely to see a massive amount of turnout and Biden will have to counter with a huge turnout of black voters in Detroit’s urban core. Biden must also take care not to let Trump peel off any sizable portion of black male support. Trump’s faux outreach to black men could have an impact in this race and it will be worth monitoring whether Trump can win a greater percentage of black voters in the State. 

Michigan is another pure toss up state. Joe Biden cannot allow himself to lose the rural vote by a 70-30% margin like Clinton did in 2016. If Biden can win over voters in the Detroit suburbs and build a huge turnout among his base in Detroit proper, then he should be able to carry Michigan. Overall Biden has about a 70% chance of winning Michigan, but it should not be viewed as a surprise if Trump once again carries the State. 

New Hampshire

Prediction: Joe Biden wins New Hampshire by 8-12%.

Hillary Clinton narrowly carried the Granite State by less than 3,000 votes in 2016. At the start of the 2020 campaign season it appeared that New Hampshire would be a top battleground state. Both Democrats and Republicans in New Hampshire tasted victory in 2018 as Democrats swept the two House seats in the state and Republican Chris Sununu won reelection in the Governor’s race. Barring something unexpected it seemed that 2020 would produce a similarly close outcome. 

The race that many expected, however, has simply never materialized. Joe Biden is going to win New Hampshire. He has led by double digits in nearly every poll and Donald Trump has only made half-hearted attempts to truly compete in the State. While New Hampshire’s four electoral votes are not the most significant to win, it is surprising that Trump hasn’t contested New Hampshire more. Expect Joe Biden to take New Hampshire by 8-12%. 

North Carolina

Prediction: Donald Trump wins North Carolina by 0.25-2%. 

This race is a pure toss-up, flip of the coin and any other adjective you want to use to describe an extremely close contest. In early October it appeared that Joe Biden was beginning to pull away slightly 

North Carolina has been a frustrating proposition for Democrats ever since Barack Obama’s surprising victory in the state in 2008. Democrats have tasted a few victories in the succeeding years, but they have been offset by seemingly far more  defeats. Despite Charlotte hosting the 2012 Democratic National Convention and Hillary Clinton, throwing an exorbitant amount of resources at the State in 2016, at the expense of Wisconsin, Democratic candidates have largely fallen just short. 

Republicans won the total Congressional vote 50.39% to 48.35%, in the 2018 Midterms, but those numbers are closer to a near 50-50 split if you take out the 3rd Congressional District where the late Republican Walter Jones ran unopposed.  

A potential warning sign for the Democrats and Joe Biden, however, took place in 2019 9th Congressional District special election. On election night in 2018, it appeared that Republican House candidate Mark Harris had squeaked out a narrow victory over Democrat Dan McCready. Massive evidence of voter fraud by Mark Harris’ campaign, however, caused the North Carolina State Board of Elections to decline to certify the election results. 

A new special election was then ordered, and new Republican candidate Dan Bishop defeated McCready by a 2% margin. The original 2018 election margin was only about .3% meaning that McCready performed slightly worse about year after the original election. While only a small sample size the special election suggested that Democrats, due to lesser turnout or lack of policy initiatives, lost a small amount of ground in North Carolina. For a state where Democrats will need every possible vote, this is a warning sign.

There is some reason for hope though for Democrats. Democrat, Roy Cooper does control the Governor’s mansion and is likely to cruise to reelection. Highly unpopular incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis is also up for reelection and his presence has the ability to drag Donald Trump down in a state where neither he or Biden can afford to lose votes. 

Trump’s chances of victory in North Carolina are likely somewhat above 50-50 but they are not much more than that. North Carolina’s suburbs are highly educated which has been an Achilles heel for Trump in elections. Ultimately, turnout will be the key in this race. Biden needs to rally the large number of black residents in the State to the polls and convince suburban voters that he represents their ideals and frustrations at the Trump administration. A Biden victory in North Carolina would likely result from Biden being able to successfully hitch a ride on Cooper’s coattails and be dragged across the finish line by the popular Governor. 

Pennsylvania

Prediction: Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania by less than 1%. 

Pennsylvania appears to be the make or break state in the 2020 cycle. It is almost certain that whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania will also win the election outright. From Philadelphia to the blue collar streets of Pittsburgh to the post-industrial city of Scranton, Pennsylvania contains a diverse array of voters whom Democrats hope will deliver them back the White House. For Joe Biden, Pennsylvania is personal. Biden was born in Scranton and he has made his blue collar roots a focal point of his campaign. Paired with Biden’s choice to make Philadelphia his national headquarters, pre-Covid, and it is clear that Biden wants the Keystone State perhaps more than any other. To win, however, he must fight against the changing tides of the once solidly blue state. 

Before Donald Trump’s narrow victory in 2016, Democratic candidates had previously won every Presidential election in the state since 1988. Going into 2016 it didn’t even appear that Pennsylvania would truly be competitive. Democratic Governor Tom Wolf had flipped the Governor’s mansion from red to blue in 2014 and polling showed Hillary Clinton to have a solid lead throughout the 2016 campaign. 

In a nightmarish scene for Clinton, however, as Trump rode massive rural support and Clinton’s “put coal miners out of business” quote to victory. Clinton’s defeat led to much soul searching and outreach among Democrats in the State and their efforts proved fruitful in the 2018 Midterms. In fact, ever since Trump won in 2016 it has been one disaster after another for Pennsylvania Republicans. First, Democrat Conor Lamb won a special election in Pennsylvania’s then 18th Congressional District in an upset over Republican Rick Saccone. Next, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down the state’s congressional map, due to a gerrymander that unfairly benefitted the Republicans. A new map was then put into place by the Court and the Republicans saw their 13 to 5 Congressional majority shrink to a 9 to 9 tie. 

Under the surface the results were even more disastrous for Republicans as Democrats took 55% of all votes cast in Congressional races. Incumbent Tom Wolf blasted his Republican challenger, Scott Wagner, by a brutal 57.8% to 40.7% margin. Incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey Jr. rubbed further salt in the wound by trouncing the hapless Lou Barletta by a 55.7% to 42.6% margin. 

Support for the Republicans, especially on the local level in 2018, completely collapsed in the Philadelphia suburbs, and these voters will have to swing to Trump in order for him to achieve victory. Fortunately for Trump, much like in 2016, the polls have tightened in the State in the final days. Trump is having to walk a very small tightrope here though. Democrats have appeared to be somewhat better organized on the state level meaning that Trump is banking on his “cultural wars” to win some split-ticket voters. 

Pennsylvania is a pure 50-50 toss-up. If Biden can avoid allowing Trump to run up massive vote totals in the rural parts of the state and turnout black voters in Philadelphia, then he should be poised to reclaim Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. On the flip side Trump will be banking on even greater turnout in Pennsylvania’s rural and rust belt areas to push him across the line. It could take days before a winner is declared in Pennsylvania and the Keystone State will have the entire country holding its collective breath.

Texas

Prediction: Donald Trump wins Texas by 1-4%. 

Texas has the ability to completely shock the nation and flip blue for the first time since Jimmy Carter carried it in 1976. Massive migration from California, Illinois, Michigan and other liberal states has turned the once insurmountable Republican State into a true battleground. Republicans may not like it but their capping of the SALT Deductions in the 2017 Republican Tax Bill is partly responsible for turning Texas more purple. With California and Illinois citizens experiencing tax raises from the 2017 Republican tax bill, a sizeable number of those citizens moved south to take advantage of a more friendly tax climate. 

These migrants have moved Texas towards the Democrats at a breakneck pace. Mitt Romney won Texas by over 15% in 2012, but Donald Trump carried that State by only less than 10%, in 2016, despite it being a strong Republican year. Once reliable Latino voters for Republicans have sharply turned against Trump as his policies represent a departure from the pro-immigration George W. Bush administration. To compound troubles for Trump there has been a massive downturn in oil prices. Paired with several struggling oil companies fighting just to stay profitable and Texas is no longer the solid Republican entity that it used to be. 

Texas is an oncoming disaster for the Republicans. While Donald Trump will likely hold Texas in 2020, this is a state that is fast trending purple. Polling has indicated that Joe Biden is still within the margin of error and is fast catching up to Trump. Biden’s moderate message has played well in Texas as he is palatable to former California’s, Latinos and Lincoln Project Republicans. A Biden win would spell an end to Trump’s re-election hopes but it is likely Biden falls just short.

Virginia

Prediction- Joe Biden wins Virginia by 9-14%. 

Virginia has been consistently trending blue for the Democrats on the local and national level, and there seems to be little Republicans can do to stop it even when they were thrown what appeared to be a lifeline. In the winter of 2019 seemingly every statewide Democrat, from Governor Ralph Northam to Attorney General Mark Herring was ensnared in an embarrassing black face controversy. 

Despite the controversy, Republicans could not capitalize on the allegations and the situation has arguably deteriorated further. The highly populated areas of the Washington D.C. and Richmond suburbs have swung hard against Trump due to his consistent attacks on the “Swamp” and government officials. For reference these suburbs are the very people that Trump has denigrated since he announced his Presidency. Highly educated voters have swung hard against Trump and the Virginia suburbs contain some of the highest college graduation rates in the country. Joe Biden has led by double digits in nearly every poll this cycle and there is absolutely nothing indicating that Donald Trump will make this a close race.  

Wisconsin

Prediction: Joe Biden wins Wisconsin by 0.25-3%.

Yet another state that can be considered a true Toss Up. Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2020 still brings nightmares to Democrats as Clinton failed to even campaign once in the State, believing it to be safely Blue. Of course, Donald Trump pulled off a complete shock victory in the once progressive state. Since Trump’s victory, however, Democrats have proved resilient as incumbent Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin cruised to an easy victory in the 2018 Midterm elections and Democrat Tony Evers narrowly downed Republican Scott Walker in the 2018 Governor’s race. 

Walker’s disastrous FOXCONN deal, where he gave billions of dollars in tax subsidies to a foreign company, still looms over Republicans in Wisconsin. Donald Trump’s tariffs and subsequent have also turned off many of Wisconsin’s famed dairy farmers. These factors combined with greater Democratic energy than in 2016 could prove disastrous for Trump. Wisconsin has one of the most diverse makeups of any state with regards to its rural and urban communities. Urban cores in Madison and Milwaukee make up the bulk of Biden’s support while the Milwaukee suburbs, small post-industrial cities and rural voters tends to favor Trump.

Biden especially will need the black vote in Milwaukee to show up to the polls. Turnout was extremely low in 2016 among black Milwaukee voters and with an election as close as this one will be Biden needs every vote he can get. Polling once again indicates that Biden should be on his way to a comfortable victory, however, very few people trust these polls. Democrats certainly don’t after being lulled to sleep in 2016 and Republicans simply will never trust a poll showing Trump behind. 

Wisconsin will almost certainly be a bellwether for the rest of the country. It is difficult to see either Biden or Trump lose Wisconsin but win the Presidency. Going strictly off polls, Biden has to be considered the slight favorite to take Wisconsin. Of course, we have heard this song and dance before but there is truly little to go off of on paper that would suggest a Trump victory. If Trump once again wins Wisconsin, then it will produce much soul searching for Democrats and pollsters alike.