2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: STATE BY STATE PREVIEW- PART 1
With the 2020 Presidential Election fast approaching both Democrats and Republicans are gearing up for one last furious push to the finish. 2020 has seen the most unorthodox campaign season in generations and I cannot recall any election in the past 50 years where there has been such a discrepancy between the polls and public perception of where the race truly stands. One thing that appears to be a certainty is that turnout in 2020 will be much higher than that in 2016. Even more important is that the higher turnout isn’t limited to a few states or a region but has instead been seen across the country.
This is Part 1 of 2 of my breakdown of every battleground State in the 2020 Election. The battleground states of Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Maine CD-2, Minnesota, Nevada and Ohio are featured in Part 1. Part 2 will feature Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Prediction: Joe Biden wins 290 Electoral Votes and the Popular Vote by 4.5%.
Arizona
Prediction: Joe Biden wins Arizona by less than 2%.
A mix of northern retirees, millennials, and controversial Republican policies have pushed the birthplace of Conservatism to become the purplish state we see today. Arizona has long been a bastion of Republican support, but their once insurmountable advantage has withered away. Republican policies on immigration, education, and more, have pushed away many voters in Phoenix’s endless sprawl.
Arizona is essentially a City-State as Maricopa County (Phoenix metro-area) makes up about 60% of the state’s total votes. Whoever wins Maricopa County will almost certainly win the state. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated Republican Martha McSally by about 2.5% in Arizona’s 2018 Senate race to become the first Democrat Senator to represent the state since Dennis DeConcini left office in 1995. Sinema ran a very centrist campaign, almost to the frustrations of local Democrat operatives, but she ran it to perfection. She has provided a model for victory for Democrats in the state that they can be successful if they stick to centrist positions.
Many Republicans in the state have been turned off by the rightward shift of Republicans on immigration and education. Sinema appealed to those voters by portraying herself as a pragmatic centrist. Joe Biden has followed Sinema’s playbook in Arizona and the results have shown. While his lead has slipped somewhat in the final days of the campaign, Biden has maintained a slight edge in Arizona. Biden’s centrist focus on the economy, health care and coronavirus response have put him in a solid position to win Arizona.
Local level politics are often a key indicator of where the voters truly stand, and Democrats made several local gains in Maricopa County in the 2018 Midterm election. Democrats picked up seats in Arizona’s Corporate Commission and in the U.S. House. Biden will hope that these victories will foretell success in 2020. Incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey did win reelection by an impressive 14% margin, however, showing that Republicans are far from dead in the state. Arizona is shifting daily towards the Democrats, and for 2020 this state will go down to the wire. With Arizona’s notoriously slow ballot counting process, we should expect for it to take a week for a winner is finally declared in this all important race.
Colorado
Prediction: Joe Biden wins Colorado by 8-12%.
Once a Republican stronghold, the increased urbanization and recreational opportunities available in the Denver Metropolitan Area has caused the state to move progressively to the Democrats. Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump by a 48.16% to 43.25% margin in 2016, while Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 5.18% of the vote. There isn’t much to talk about with Colorado. Although Clinton never reached 50%, in 2016, nothing had pointed to Trump making any inroads in the fast changing state. Expect Joe Biden to carry Colorado by an 8-12% margin in 2020.
Florida
Prediction: Donald Trump wins Florida by less than 1%.
After Republicans Ron DeSantis (Governor) and Rick Scott (Senator) emerged victorious after a brutal 2018 campaign, it is somewhat difficult to see how Joe Biden will sneak out a victory. Florida was one the few bright spots for the Republicans in an otherwise miserable 2018 election cycle and Donald Trump’s base of support in Northern Florida remains exceptionally strong. That all being said Joe Biden still is hanging around and is even leading in polling averages. Donald Trump holds an incredibly slight advantage in Florida, but it would be a mistake to count Biden out.
In order to achieve victory Biden must cobble together a coalition of African Americans who didn’t vote for President in 2016, the State’s large Haitian and Puerto Rican population whom Donald Trump has constantly disparaged and a strong turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Broward County.
Florida has built a reputation for providing severe heartbreak for Democrats. Outside of Barack Obama, Democrats in the state such Alex Sink and Andrew Gillum have been unsuccessful in breaking Republican dominance in the state. Democratic strongholds in Tallahassee and Broward County will need to turnout in extremely high numbers in order to counter-balance Trump’s immense popularity in the Florida Panhandle. It would also do Biden good if he could cut into Trump’s margins in the Panhandle. Biden simply cannot afford to lose the panhandle by a 70-30% margin as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
One thing to watch is whether Florida’s recent allowance for felons to regain voter rights becomes a factor. African Americans have been disproportionately registered as felons. As a result, these voters have been unable to vote in previous elections. If Democrats can bring those voters into the fold, then they will dramatically increase their chances of winning in a state where statewide elections constantly are decided by a few thousand votes.
Regardless of the national climate, Florida is always a close race. Every Presidential race since 2000 has been decided by less than 5% and 2020 will be no different. While polling had indicated that Biden holds a very slight lead it is likely that Trump will slightly out-perform the polls. This does not guarantee victory for Trump, however. Trump cannot afford to have any slippage of support in the Panhandle and needs to make sure he does not hemorrhage voters in areas like Orlando that have seen a large influx of migration from liberal states such as New York, Michigan and Illinois. Neither party can afford a slip up and ultimately each candidate’s success will depend on whether they can get their entire base out to vote.
Iowa
Prediction: Donald Trump wins Iowa by 3-7%.
Iowa is a true enigma. Donald Trump’s tariffs have buried the state’s vibrant agricultural industry and have tanked his approval numbers among farmers. Democrats also flipped two of Iowa’s four Congressional Districts in 2018. Despite this it appears that Trump is headed for another victory in the Hawkeye State. The highly respected pollster Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. showed Trump with a surprising 7% lead over Joe Biden. While the 48% to 41% margin indicates that there are still plenty of undecided voters it presents an ominous omen for Biden. While it is only one poll, the Des Moines Register generally is considered the gold standard and throws Biden’s chances at winning Iowa in doubt.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be too surprising that Trump would win Iowa. After all Trump has poured in billions of dollars in bail out money to Iowa farmers in the hopes of alleviating the disastrous effects that Trump’s tariffs have had on the State. At this juncture, it appears that Iowa may still contain the greatest percentage of swing voters in the entire country. Barack Obama carried Iowa twice, but Hillary Clinton severely underperformed in 2016 and lost by nearly 10%. After Hillary Clinton’s shellacking, Democrats went on to dominate the 2018 Congressional races, but lost the Governor’s race in the process. It is safe to say, the winning margin in Iowa will be less in 2020 than it was in 2016 but Biden still is the underdog.
Ultimately, Trump holds the keys in Iowa. The former industrial areas bordering the Mississippi River, especially around Clinton County, seem to be moving towards Trump in the final days of the campaign. One area that could still trip up Trump is the reaction of Iowa farmers to the constant bail outs being given to the State. Most voters generally do not like the thought of being bailed out by the government or being reliant on subsidies. If these voters rebel in numbers that were not caught in the Des Moines Register poll, then Biden may be able to sneak in a victory.
Maine
Prediction: Joe Biden win Maine by a margin of 9-14%.
Maine appears to have swung somewhat against Donald Trump in the run up to the 2020 Election. Trump came within 2.7% in 2016 from pulling off the upset in the very independent-minded state. Independence and thinking outside the box dominates Maine’s politics and it is likely Maine voters have grown tired of the consistent malarky coming out of the White House. Maine has also been at the forefront of introducing several alternative forms of voting which seem likely to swing heavily in favor of Joe Biden.
First, Maine does not award their four electoral college votes as winner-take-all, like nearly every other state. Instead, Maine awards two of its electoral votes to whoever wins the majority of votes statewide and an electoral vote each for the respective winner of each of Maine’s two Congressional districts. That election quirk alone makes Maine compelling, since a candidate could lose the total popular vote and yet still pick up an electoral vote, as Donald Trump did in 2016. However, the most unique aspect of voting in Maine is its Ranked Choice System.
Under Ranked Choice, voters rank their choices for President instead of just voting for one single candidate. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, the candidate with the fewest first-place votes gets eliminated. Those who voted for the eliminated candidate will then have their second voting choice counted. The second choice votes of everyone who voted for the eliminated candidate then gets distributed to the remaining candidates. This will continue until a candidate gets a majority of the vote.
This situation happened in 2018, in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin received a plurality of the first preference votes but failed to secure an outright 50% majority. Second and third preference votes were then counted and came in overwhelmingly in favor of Democrat challenger Jared Golden. Golden was subsequently awarded the victory by a margin of 50.62% to 49.38%.
Based on the 2018 results, it is pretty evident that Ranked Choice will favor Joe Biden. Candidates such as Progressive Independent Lisa Savage have largely urged their supporters to write in Biden and also Democratic Senatorial candidate Sara Gideon as their second choice. There are simply too many factors working against Donald Trump here for him to achieve a surprise victory.
Maine CD-2
Prediction: Joe Biden wins the 2nd District by less than 3%.
With Maine issuing an electoral vote to the winner of each of Maine’s two Congressional Districts, Maine’s 2nd District could be instrumental in determining the victor in the 2020 race. The 2nd District’s electoral vote has been shown in several simulations to be capable of breaking a 269-269 electoral college deadlock and will be a critical District for both candidate to win. Maine’s 2nd District is a sprawling rural district that makes up nearly the entirety of the State. The District on the surface appears to be tailormade for Donald Trump. The 2ndDistrict’s population is an astounding 95.5% white and features a college graduation rate of 21.6%.
The 2nd District itself is about 4-6% right of center compared to the rest of the country and about 10% right of center compared to Maine’s more liberal 1st District. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the District by about 10% in 2016 and highly symbolized the inroads that Trump had made with rural voters, especially those without a college education. One positive for Joe Biden is that incumbent Second District Rep. Jared Golden (D) is highly popular in the District and possesses the ability to drag Biden across the finish line. Golden defeated former Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin in the 2018 midterms and has helped bring a jolt of life back to the Democrats in the District.
The 2nd District had previously supported every Democratic Presidential candidate since 1992 before swinging hard for Trump in 2020. What is different in 2020, however, is the introduction of Ranked Choice voting into the Presidential race. Ranked Choice was not yet utilized at the Presidential level in 2016 but will play a major factor in 2020. There is a decent possibility that Trump may lead in the initial vote totals in the District over Biden. However, once the Ranked Choice voting is tabulated, it is likely that Biden will receive more second place votes than Trump.
The 2nd District has the potential to create much turmoil if Trump wins the initial vote but then loses the District due to Ranked Choice voting. If the entire election comes down to this one District, then we can expect a long and arduous legal conflict over the use of Ranked Choice.
Minnesota
Prediction- Joe Biden wins Minnesota by 2-5%
It is largely forgotten, but Hillary Clinton carried Minnesota by only 1.5% in 2016. Since then, however, Democrats have largely won the major races in the state, such as both U.S. Senate seats, the Governor’s mansion, and Attorney General. Minnesota Democrats even flipped two House seats from the Republicans in the Minneapolis suburbs. So why are we still talking about Minnesota as a potential swing state?
That reason is that Minnesota’s rural and Union populations, once Democrat strongholds, have swung heavily towards the Republicans in recent years. Democrats may have flipped two House seats in 2018, but the truth is that Republicans also flipped two House seats from the Democrats. Minnesota’s 1st and 8th Congressional Districts, which are largely rural, were both won by Republicans and were the only two Congressional Districts that Republicans flipped nationwide in the entire 2018 Election cycle.
Republicans also believe that the protests over the death of George Floyd and the subsequent looting will impact the Presidential race. Donald Trump has based his entire “Law and Order” campaign promise off of the unrest created by the heinous of Floyd and Republicans have hammered this message home especially in Minnesota.
The suburbs of Minneapolis, in particular, are a target for Trump as he is hoping to shift the focus of suburban voters away from his record and instead towards their personal safety. If Trump manages to carry Minnesota it will almost assuredly be due to the “Law and Order” message that he has claimed to represent.
Biden meanwhile will be buoyed by Minneapolis’ liberal center and liberal trending suburbs, but he will also have to avoid letting Trump run up the score in rural areas. In particular, Minnesota’s famed Iron Range is a danger point for Democrats. Once a heavily unionized Democratic stronghold, the Iron Range has taken a hard turn against the Democrats and Biden will need to hope that his pro-Union roots strike a chord with voters there. If Biden can keep the Iron Range within a 20% margin, then his chances of taking the State will be good. If Biden loses in this region by more than 20%, however, Minnesota could be in danger of flipping red.
Recent polling has shown a close race but even the most Republican friendly polls have shown Biden with a consistent 2-5% lead. Biden will enter election day as the favorite but of all the states won by Clinton, Minnesota is absolutely the state most endanger of flipping to Trump. While it may not get much attention on election night Minnesota will likely be closer than several other so-called battleground states.
Nevada
Prediction- Joe Biden wins by 3-7%.
Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) should be credited with turning Nevada into a somewhat reliably blue state. Reid’s political apparatus helped Democrat Jacky Rosen purge incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller from Congress by a five point margin in the 2018 midterm elections. Democrat political veteran Steve Sisolak also took care of business by flipping the Governor’s mansion from red to blue. Democrats are on the upswing in Nevada and with a relatively well organized Hispanic and Union base it would take something catastrophic for Joe Biden to lose the state to Trump in 2020.
Trump has often touted Nevada has a potential pick up opportunity but there isn’t any real evidence in polling or on the ground that would suggest he will steal Nevada from Biden. Biden's lead in the polls does stand at only about 4% but this gap will be incredibly tough for Trump to close. Even Trafalgar Group, the most positive Republican pollster of the cycle, has put Biden up by 2% in what is a highly polarized state. Trump will need to win the national popular vote outright in order to win Nevada and that appears highly unlikely.
Ohio
Prediction: Donald Trump wins Ohio by 2-4%.
Make no mistake, Ohio is going to be a tough slog for Joe Biden. Despite some favorable polls coming out in favor of Biden, it is likely that Donald Trump takes Ohio. Of the rust belt states, Ohio is likely to be Trump’s best performing state. Although Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection in 2018, the Democrats also lost the Governor’s race and several winnable Congressional races. In 2016, Donald Trump won Ohio by a 51.69% to 43.56% margin and there has been little indication that the Democrats have made enough inroads since 2016 to retake the state.
Democrats on the state level had trouble outraising their Republican opponents in 2018 and it hasn’t been much better for the Democrats in the state in 2020. One of the main problems for Democrats in Ohio has been the decline of population in the state’s urban centers. These urban areas are the heart of the Democrat base in the state and that base has been shrinking. Combined with weakening support in the traditionally blue collar areas of Youngstown and the Mahoning Valley in Eastern Ohio, Biden will find it tough to corral enough voters to his corner. Biden’s rust belt and middle class roots do play well to Ohio’s electorate, but this election is more about Trump than it is about Biden. Biden’s presence in Ohio is largely insignificant and voters will base their decision off of how they feel about Trump.
On a separate note, Ohio was also one the biggest benefactors of the Republican’s 2017 Tax Bill. Ohio has very cheap housing, relative to the nation, meaning that prior to 2017, the SALT deduction for state income and property taxes was rarely used in the state. The SALT deduction allows taxpayers to deduct from their tax basis the amount of property and state income taxes that they paid for the year. The 2017 tax bill capped the SALTdeduction to an amount of only $10,000. Now, taxpayers can only deduct a maximum of $10,000 from their taxes under the SALT deductions. This has put an extremely high burden on states with high property values such as New York, New Jersey and California. Residents of those states regularly pay $10,000 in property taxes per year before even factoring in state income taxes. This has meant that these states are now able to deduct fewer taxes post 2017 than they could prior.
Ohioans, with their relatively average state income tax and low property taxes were insulated from this tax change. Ohio received the benefits of lower tax rates and a higher standard deduction without having to give up anything in return. This has given many Ohioans the view that the 2017 tax bill was successful and the suburban voters who have fled the Republicans elsewhere have not done so to the same level in Ohio. Voters who voted Republican in 2016 stayed in the Republican column in 2018 as a result. Donald Trump should be expected to win Ohio, but by a much smaller margin than he did in 2020.