Kentucky Primary: Can Progressives Score A Victory Against The Democrat Establishment?
On June 23rd, voters in Kentucky will take to the polls in what is becoming an increasingly bitter primary season for Democrats. One race in particular could have a critical impact on the trajectory of the Democratic party in the upcoming months. In Kentucky’s Democratic Primary for Senator, State Representative Charles Booker, the favorite among progressives, is facing former Marine fighter pilot and establishment-backed Amy McGrath. The winner of this race will go on to face Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the general election.
Progressives are seeking to gain momentum in what has largely been a bust of a 2020 campaign season. Kentucky’s primary was initially slated to take place in May but the outbreak of Covid-19 forced the Commonwealth to postpone their contest. While many progressives criticized the postponement at the time, the change in date is absolutely the only reason that Charles Booker has been so competitive in Kentucky.
The despicable killing of Breonna Taylor, who was shot to death by police mistakenly serving a no-knock warrant on her apartment, has galvanized Booker’s supporters. Taylor’s death took place in Booker’s hometown of Louisville and gave Booker an opening to raise attention to an issue that is critical to his candidacy. Booker has long been outspoken on issues of racism and police brutality and has been a consistent and powerful voice during the protests. Booker’s constant presence at the protests has raised his profile among local and national Democrats and has given him a platform to run on.
Prior to Taylor and, later, George Floyd’s death, Booker, whom is Kentucky’s youngest black lawmaker, had only raised about $800,000 between January 1, 2020, and June 3, 2020. In the weeks after the national protests over the deaths of Taylor and Floyd, however, Booker has raised an impressive $1.5 million. From a money perspective, this sum will hardly scare McGrath. McGrath currently has an astounding $19 million in cash on hand, but the fact she has this vast sum on hand raises serious red flags about her campaign.
Chiefly among McGrath’s red flags is that she overlooked her opponent in Booker. McGrath from the very beginning of her candidacy concentrated on campaigning against Mitch McConnell as opposed to any of her Primary opponents. She constantly attacked McConnell and focused solely on raising a large sum of money for the general election against him. The issue with this strategy is that McGrath believed she would be the inevitable candidate against McConnell. Now it might be too late for McGrath as Kentucky insiders believe that Booker holds the advantage over her.
While McGrath has made several missteps, including being viewed as being indifferent to the recent Taylor/Floyd protests, she still has several things going for her. McGrath has been a favorite among establishment Democrats, and she has near universal name recognition in the state. Her military background should play well in the eastern portion of Kentucky. This part of the Commonwealth is more culturally conservative and blue collar than Louisville or the sparsely populated western portion of the state and will be the key to McGrath’s success. McGrath’s large sum of money in the bank could also win her votes from those in the Louisville suburbs who view her as best equipped to defeat McConnell. Unfortunately, for McGrath the $19 million in cash on hand will do her little good if she is unable to defeat Booker.
In Kentucky’s 2019 Gubernatorial race, Democrat Andy Beshear defeated incumbent Republican Matt Bevin due to a huge increase in turnout in the Louisville metropolitan area. If these same voters turn out in today’s primary, then this will bode well for Booker’s chances since this area contains the base of his support. A complicating factor in the Primary, however, could be the lack of available polling locations.
Normally Kentucky has around 3,700 polling locations, according to the Secretary of State, however, due to Covid-19, Kentucky voters will only be able to vote at 170 locations. The lack of locations obviously could affect the number of voters who decide to show up and thus influence the results. It is possible that some voters will not be able to cast their ballots on election night due to these restrictions and the situation will have to be closely monitored.
Despite a lack of polling and the potential complications from a lack of voting locations, Charles Booker appears to be the slight favorite to win the Democratic primary. Booker, despite being a relatively unknown entity a month ago, has truly seized the initiative on the critical issue of racism and police brutality and has caught Amy McGrath flat footed. Although McGrath has a lot of money in the bank, she made the critical mistake in allowing Booker to define himself and gain traction with voters. McGrath’s avoidance in attacking Booker could go down as one of the most colossal mistakes of the entire 2020 national campaign. If she loses, it will be a prime example of why you should never underestimate any opponents in a Primary.
PREDICTION: Charles Booker Defeats Amy McGrath By a 3-10% Margin