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2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: STATE BY STATE PREVIEW- PART 2

Pennsylvania appears to be the make or break state in the 2020 cycle. It is almost certain that whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania will also win the election outright. From Philadelphia to the blue collar streets of Pittsburgh to the post-industrial city of Scranton, Pennsylvania contains a diverse array of voters whom Democrats hope will deliver them back the White House. For Joe Biden, Pennsylvania is personal. Biden was born in Scranton and he has made his blue collar roots a focal point of his campaign.

elections, news, politicsJosh ShancerNovember 3, 2020Wisconsin poll, virginia poll, news, polls, prediction, georgia prediction, wisconsin prediction, texas prediction, elections, pennsylvania, north carolina prediction, pennsylvania predictionComment

2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: STATE BY STATE PREVIEW- PART 1

Make no mistake, Ohio is going to be a tough slog for Joe Biden. Despite some favorable polls coming out in favor of Biden, it is likely that Donald Trump takes Ohio. Of the rust belt states, Ohio is likely to be Trump’s best performing state. Although Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection in 2018, the Democrats also lost the Governor’s race and several winnable Congressional races. In 2016, Donald Trump won Ohio by a 51.69% to 43.56% margin and there has been little indication that the Democrats have made enough inroads since 2016 to retake the state.

elections, politics, newsJosh ShancerNovember 1, 2020state predictions, iowa prediction, ohio prediction, news, arizona prediction, colorado prediction, Florida prediction, maine prediction, minnesota prediction, nevada prediction, donald trump, joe bidenComment

Kentucky Primary: Can Progressives Score A Victory Against The Democrat Establishment?

Progressives are seeking to gain momentum in what has largely been a bust of a 2020 campaign season. Kentucky’s primary was initially slated to take place in May but the outbreak of Covid-19 forced the Commonwealth to postpone their contest. While many progressives criticized the postponement at the time, the change in date is absolutely the only reason that Charles Booker has been so competitive in Kentucky.

elections, news, politicsJosh ShancerJune 23, 2020kentucky, amy mcgrath, charles booker, Mitch McConnell, Moscow Mitch, Kentucky Primary, Kentucky Covid-19Comment

Arizona Is Sliding Away From Martha McSally

McSally’s troubles are partly due to the circumstances of which she became a Senator. McSally was the Republican nominee for Senator in 2018, but was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. After her 2018 defeat, through a number of unique circumstances, McSally was appointed Senator by Republican Governor Doug Ducey to replace John McCain who had died with over four years remaining on his term.

elections, politics, newsJosh ShancerMay 21, 2020martha mcsally, mark kelly, arizona senate, barry goldwater, Dennis DeConcini, Kyrsten Sinema, Doug Ducey, news, politics, Arizona senate prediction Comment

Battle In Big Sky Country: Steve Daines vs. Steve Bullock

Few states exhibit an independent streak quite like Montana. In an age of straight ticket voting and increased polarization, Montana is an anomaly that deserves more attention…

elections, politicsJosh ShancerMay 15, 2020steve daines, steve bullock, montana senate race, big sky country, Battle In Big Sky Country: Steve Daines vs. Steve Bullock, senate, 2020 senate, donald trump, newsComment

May Polling Update: Fact Or Fiction?

It is almost a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump will lose the popular vote in the 2020 election. Trump is likely to lose the popular vote by an even greater margin than the 2.1% that he lost by in 2016. Large blue states such as California, Illinois, and New York, have swung further away from Republicans and will produce large voter deficits for Trump….

elections, politicsJosh ShancerMay 6, 2020donald trump, joe biden, realclearpolitics, rcp polls, fact or fiction, polling inaccuracyComment

Illinois Congressional District 6 Preview: A Critical Test Of Democratic Strength In The Suburbs

In the 2018 Midterm election, Illinois’ 6th Congressional District was one of the most closely watched races in the entire country. The District was only about 2% more Republican than the country, as a whole, and Hillary Clinton won the District on the Presidential level in 2016. Situated in a “C” shape around Chicago’s western suburbs the 6th District was thought to be a bellwether for suburban district across the country and it did not disappoint by almost perfectly mirroring the national vote…

politics, electionsJosh ShancerApril 27, 2020illinois 6th district, sean casten, political handicapper, Jeanne Ives, peter roskam, news, donald trumpComment

Illinois Congressional District 14 Preview: Can Lauren Underwood Hold Off The Milk Dud?

With its exurban makeup, the 14th Congressional District of Illinois will represent a critical test for Republicans seeking to regain lost ground from the 2018 Midterm elections. The 2020 race between incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood and perennial Republican challenger Jim Oberweis is expected to be one of the tightest races in the country…

politics, news, electionsJosh ShancerApril 23, 2020illinois, illinois 14th district, 2020 election, randy hultgren, lauren underwood, jim oberweis, democrat, republican, newsComment

WHY BERNIE SANDERS FAILED: PART 2

Millennial voters long served as the backbone of Sanders’ support, and strong turnout among this group was mandatory for his victory. Sanders, however, was unable to turn out younger voters to the polls like he did in 2016, and, comparatively, millennial voters made up a much smaller share of the electorate in 2020… This disparity in turnout among the two age groups had disastrous consequences for Sanders, particularly in Texas.

politics, elections, newsJosh ShancerApril 16, 2020bernie sanders, bernie sanders dropped out, Why Bernie Sanders Failed: Part 1, news, Millennial, joe biden, Texas Primary, turnoutComment

Mini Tuesday: March 10th Democratic Primary Preview

The most closely watched race of the March 10th primaries will no doubt be Michigan. Michigan not only has the largest total of delegates at 125 (36% of the March 10th delegates) but it contains a high amount of symbolism for Bernie Sanders. Sanders pulled off a truly massive upset in Michigan, in 2016, when he overcame a 21-point polling deficit to claim victory over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Sanders once again faces almost the exact same polling deficit…

Super Tuesday Preview and Predictions

Individual previews and predictions for all fourteen Super Tuesday states.

elections, politics, newsJosh ShancerMarch 3, 2020bernie sanders, democratic primary, texas, california, joe biden, pete buttigieg, amy klobuchar, alabama primary, tennessee primary, news, super tuesday predictions, elizabeth warren, super tuesdayComment

South Carolina Primary Preview: Joe Biden's Last Stand

South Carolina will provide the first true test of Joe Biden’s support among black voters. For the entire 2020 campaign we have heard endlessly about Biden’s strength among black voters. So far, however, Biden has been unable to utilize his support among black voters. Iowa and New Hampshire contained a miniscule number of black voters, while in Nevada, Latinos are the dominant minority group. Now, in the fourth contest of the Democratic Primary, we will finally be able to gauge where black voters stand in the 2020 Primary.

elections, politics, newsJosh ShancerFebruary 29, 2020joe biden, south carolina primary, south carolina, bernie sanders, news, tom steyer, pete buttigieg, elizabeth warren, amy klobuchar, democratic primary, 2020 electionComment

THE REGIONAL PRIMARY SYSTEM: WHAT THE SYSTEM IS AND WHY DEMOCRATS NEED TO ADOPT IT

Iowa has highlighted how patently unfair and damaging the current system is for the Democrats… The solution to this damaging system and lack of uniformity is to split the United States into a Regional System. This Regional System would contain five voting regions with ten states each. For five weeks, beginning on the first Tuesday of February, one region and only one region would hold all of their primaries on the same date.

politics, elections, iowa, Regional PrimaryJosh ShancerFebruary 4, 2020news, democratic primary, iowa caucus, iowa, elizabeth warren, bernie sanders, pete buttigieg, joe biden, Regional System, new hampshire, democrat primaryComment

BERNIE SANDERS IS THE FRONT-RUNNER IN IOWA

No Democrat has had a better last three months than Bernie Sanders. After Sanders’ heart attack in early October, 2019, it appeared that his entire campaign might be in jeopardy. Elizabeth Warren was surging in the polls and threatened to take over the mantle as the liberal standard-bearer of the Democratic Party. As evidenced in the polls, at the time, it seemed as if the magic that had carried Sanders in 2016 was beginning to wane. Just three months later, however, Bernie Sanders have firmly established his place as the front runner in the Iowa Caucus.

politics, electionsJosh ShancerJanuary 31, 2020bernie sanders, bernie sanders frontrunner, polls, elizabeth warren, pete buttigieg, joe biden, iowa caucus, iowa prediction, amy klobuchar, prediction, news, medicare for all, des moines register Comment

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