Illinois Congressional District 6 Preview: A Critical Test Of Democratic Strength In The Suburbs
Current Rating: Leans Democrat
In the 2018 Midterm election, Illinois’ 6th Congressional District was one of the most closely watched races in the entire country. The District was only about 2% more Republican than the country, as a whole, and Hillary Clinton won the District on the Presidential level in 2016. Situated in a “C” shape around Chicago’s western suburbs the 6th District was thought to be a bellwether for suburban districts across the country and it did not disappoint by almost perfectly mirroring the national vote. Congressional Republicans had performed somewhat well in the suburbs in 2016, but under the leadership of Donald Trump noticeable cracks in this support had begun to show in the lead up to the 2018 race. These cracks would cascade into the “Blue Wave” that would sweep out several long-term Republican incumbents including veteran Republican Representative Peter Roskam of the 6th District.
Peter Roskam was a relatively strong incumbent and was seemingly well suited for the 6th District with his somewhat more moderate Conservative positions. The Republican had managed to win reelection by nearly 20% in 2016, and despite growing anti-Republican sentiment in the District, Roskam was well funded during the 2018 campaign. However, due in part to his role in passing the 2017 Republican Tax Bill, Roskam greatly imperiled his quest for reelection by essentially raising taxes on his own constituents in the 6th District.
The 6th District is filled to the brim with upper-middle class suburbanites who pay high property taxes. The 2017 Republican Tax Bill harshly capped the State and Local Tax Deductions (SALT) at $10,000 in a District where a large proportion of homeowners pay in excess of $10,000 per year in property taxes. What this means is that many of Roskam’s constituents received a tax increase as opposed to a tax decrease from the 2017 bill. Roskam’s support for the 2017 Republican Tax Bill infuriated his constituents and provided a large opening for Democratic challenger Sean Casten*. Casten would utilize an anti-Republican tax bill and pro-environment campaign message to defeat Roskam, in the 2018 election, by about a seven point margin. This margin was largely in line with the national Democratic advantage of 8.4%.
Since taking office, Sean Casten has been a consistently liberal voice in the House of Representatives. A former CEO of a green energy company, Casten has made clean energy and the climate change a central pillar of his campaign platform. He has long been an advocate enacting environmental protections and transitioning the U.S. from fossil fuels to clean energy sources. Casten has also been an effective fundraiser as he has so far raised nearly 3 times the amount of money as Republican challenger Jeanne Ives. Pair this with having Casten having $2.5 million in cash on hand and he will be a tough incumbent to dislodge come November.
Jeanne Ives, a former member of the Illinois House of Representatives, will present an interesting challenge to Casten in November. She is a somewhat controversial candidate but has relatively high name recognition from her near upset-victory over Bruce Rauner in the 2018 Republican Primary for Governor. During the 2018 Gubernatorial race, Ives raised the eyebrows of many and infuriated countless others for a truly bizarre campaign video attacking Rauner. The video was heavily criticized by Democrats and Republicans alike for being racist and homophobic, but it allowed Ives to become a household name in Illinois. Critically, the video provided Ives with a platform to run on and helps to preview the type of campaign she will likely wage against Casten. Ives positions are further to the right then the District is itself, however, which could pose a problem come November.
The 6th District has been trending further away from Republicans in recent years and Ives may have to moderate some of her positions to win over moderate and swing voters. Ives’ pro-life, and anti-LGBTQ positions in particular will be tough sells in the suburban district. Casten, on the other hand, will face much less pressure to distance himself from previous positions he took than Ives, which could prove advantageous.
There is certainly a window of opportunity for Ives to defeat Casten, but her path is more difficult than her Democratic counterpart. Complicating this path is the non-physical presence of Donald Trump in the 6th District. Trump lost the 6thDistrict in 2016 and is likely to lose it again in 2020. As a result, Ives will have to rely on split-ticket voters to win. Peter Roskam greatly outran Trump in 2016, but Ives has not accumulated the same incumbency and goodwill advantage that Roskam carried. Ives will need Donald Trump to run as close to Joe Biden as possible in the 6th District for her to defeat Casten.
Sean Casten is currently a moderate favorite over Jeanne Ives due to his fundraising advantage and the District’s increasingly blueish trend. Ives will need to close the fundraising gap on Casten if she is to truly be competitive against him in November. This will likely require help from outside Republican groups, such as Club For Growth and Susan B. Anthony List. Ives should receive plenty of support from these outside groups which will make her a formidable challenger. Outside Democratic groups are almost certain to step in to assist Casten in the run up to November and he should maintain his current fundraising advantage throughout. As long as Casten can avoid any slip ups in his messaging or fundraising, then he should be able to win reelection. If Donald Trump is able to win the District by even a tiny margin, however, Casten could find himself being swept out of office by the national political winds.
*Disclaimer: The author of this article participated in several campaign events and fundraisers for Sean Casten during the 2018 Election.