Super Tuesday Preview and Predictions

Super Tuesday is finally here. After wallowing for a month through the cornfields of Iowa and deserts of Nevada we will finally receive more clarity on the state of the 2020 race. Fourteen states, with California and Texas being the most critical, will cast their ballots on March 3, 2020. These fourteen states will account for approximately 40% of the U.S. population and 34% of all pledged delegates. Below is my preview of each state that will be voting on Super Tuesday:

ARKANSAS

Very little polling has been done in Arkansas and the state has been largely ignored by the remaining 2020 contenders. Bernie Sanders, Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren have all visited the state one time each, but none are likely to win Arkansas. Instead, it is likely that Joe Biden carries the Natural State. Arkansas contains a fairly large percentage of black voters and Biden demonstrated in South Carolina that he can win those black voters by a big margin. Pete Buttigieg likely would have done well with Arkansas’ vast rural population, but with him out of the race it is unclear where those voters will turn. If Bernie Sanders is to win in Arkansas, he must win over those former Buttigieg supporters.

Predicted Winner: JOE BIDEN

ALABAMA

Like Arkansas there has been almost no polling in Alabama. The state has been completely ignored on the Presidential level with the nation’s focus squarely on the hotly anticipated GOP Primary for Senator between Jeff Sessions, Tommy Tuberville, Roy Moore and Bradley Byrne. This race will likely be called almost immediately for Joe Biden. The Democratic electorate is majority Black and Joe Biden is far and away best positioned to win these voters. Expect Biden to exceed 50% of the vote in Alabama.

Predicted Winner: JOE BIDEN

CALIFORNIA

California ended Bernie Sanders’ chance to win the Democratic Primary in 2016, but in 2020, California may be the catalyst to lead him to the Democratic nomination. It should go without saying that California, due to its sheer number of delegates, can make or break a campaign. Sanders has led in nearly every 2020 poll, in California, and he appears to be on the fast track to winning the largest state in the country. Sanders’ support among Latinos, which he showcased in winning the Nevada Caucus, will be critical to carrying the Golden State. California is heavily diverse, but does not contain as large of a percentage of black voters as Alabama or Arkansas. This will blunt Joe Biden’s momentum as he launches a last ditch effort to catch Sanders in the state. One added wrinkle to California is that mail-in voting is common. What this means is that a large number of Democratic ballots were likely cast and mailed in prior to Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out of the race. Since both candidates dropped out less than 48 hours before the primary there are likely to be a number of dead votes. While Biden may finish slightly closer to Sanders compared recent polling, he will rue losing the potential votes that have already been cast for Buttigieg and Klobuchar. There is no guarantee that Biden would have picked up all of those voters, but he certainly does need them in order to launch a serious challenge on Sanders. Sanders’ voting base in California is large and passionate and should drive him to victory in the state.

Predicted Winner: BERNIE SANDERS

COLORADO

Colorado’s Democratic Primary is well tailored for a very liberal candidate. The state contains large liberal universities such as University of Colorado-Boulder and a large number of individuals have moved to the Denver area in recent years from California and New York. Denver is one of the fastest growing urban areas in the entire country and its suburbs have become more Democratic over years. This explains why Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have performed best in the polls in Colorado. With Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar out of the race, Joe Biden may see a boost in support, relative to his poll numbers, but Colorado just isn’t suited for him. Biden could receive a large amount of support in the Denver suburbs, but he will have to undercut Elizabeth Warren to do so. Sanders, like California, has a dedicated base of support and he will stand to benefit from Warren and Biden splitting the suburban vote.

Predicted Winner: BERNIE SANDERS

MAINE

Maine’s polling has been all over the place. While Bernie Sanders currently holds a commanding lead in the few recent polls, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren have each led in the state at some point. Perhaps the biggest key to victory will be who can win over the vast number of rural voters who were supporting Pete Buttigieg. Sanders’ win in neighboring New Hampshire suggests that he has the best ability to win over these voters. Neither Warren or Biden have shown any indication that they can definitively sweep up these rural voters which will hurt their chances at victory. Maine’s ranked choice system will also not be in place for Tuesday’s primary meaning that a number of votes that have already been cast cannot be transferred to another candidate. This favors Bernie Sanders and should help him achieve victory in Maine.

Predicted Winner: BERNIE SANDERS

MASSACHUSETTS

For Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts is make or break for her campaign. A win for the Massachusetts Senator would provide her with a much-needed victory and talking point that she is electable. If Warren were to lose, however, it is likely that she will drop out of the 2020 race entirely. There would simply be no conceivable path forward to win the nomination if she were unable to win her home state. This race will likely be decided by only a few percentage points. Sanders has led in most polling by a small margin, but Warren’s organizing prowess in the state should not be underestimated. Warren’s supporters know she has to win Massachusetts and they have been out in force to push her across the line. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out of the 2020 race will free up a large number of votes in the state. Whichever candidate can best turn over these votes to their own side will likely emerge victorious. Massachusetts will be razor tight but Elizabeth Warren’s organization in her home state should be just enough to give her a narrow victory.  

Predicted Winner: ELIZABETH WARREN

MINNESOTA

Prior to Amy Klobuchar dropping out of the 2020 race, it appeared as if she may have had just enough support to hold off Bernie Sanders. With Klobuchar out of the race it appears that Minnesota will be Bernie Sanders’ to take. Polling has indicated that a post-Klobuchar race will be tight between Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Joe Biden, but these polls do not take into account any early voting that has already taken place. Early voting has been happening for weeks and those ballots that were already accepted cannot be changed. This means that Klobuchar will still receive perhaps 10% to 15% of the vote despite her having quit the race. This type of race will favor a candidate who already had an established base of voters in Minnesota, namely Bernie Sanders. Had Klobuchar dropped out of the race a few weeks ago, then perhaps Biden or Warren could have made a run at Sanders. Due to early voting, however, there likely are not enough votes left for either candidate to pass Sanders.

Predicted Winner: BERNIE SANDERS

NORTH CAROLINA

A few weeks ago, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg appeared locked in a close race in North Carolina. After Biden’s victory in neighboring South Carolina, however, it appears that he has gained some late momentum in the Tar Heel State. The two most recent polls have shown Biden with leads ranging from 9%-27%. Couple this with North Carolina’s large black population and the state appears to be trending towards Biden. North Carolina’s black population is 21.46% of the state compared to South Carolina’s 27.03%. While the states are not completely identical, polling and demographics would indicate that Biden has an edge. Sanders should be able to mount a fight, particularly in North Carolina’s plentiful college towns, but this will likely not be enough to top Biden.

Predicted Winner: JOE BIDEN

OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma is a hard state to nail down. A month ago polling indicated that Michael Bloomberg was in the lead in the Sooner state. Joe Biden now leads in the polls there, but it must be stressed that there has been little polling and that polling has shown different trends across the board. Oklahoma, other than Elizabeth Warren’s stories of growing up and living in the state, has been almost completely ignored. It is possible that Warren could receive a hometown boost of sorts, but she remains an underdog. It is also possible that Warren’s claims of being Native American could hurt her in a state that is 7.52% Native American. Bernie Sanders did win Oklahoma, in 2016, but his campaign has not aggressively campaigned there and there is not a large Latino population for Sanders to rely on. Speaking of demographics, only 7.35% of Oklahoma is black meaning the state is not an obvious pick up for Joe Biden. Oklahoma is a true toss up, but Bernie Sanders may have the best shot at winning due to his 2016 victory and the lack of any true strength from his rivals in the state.  

Predicted Winner: BERNIE SANDERS

TENNESSEE

At first glance Tennessee's demographics, with its black population making up 16.80% of the total electorate, would seem to favor Joe Biden. Despite this, however, Bernie Sanders has maintained at least a 9% edge in every recent poll. On paper there is little to explain this. Biden has not received the post-South Carolina bump in Tennessee that he received in other states. The polls fly in the face of what demographics and trends have taught us in other primary states. These poll numbers are also baffling considering the 2016 Democratic primary. In 2016, Sanders was crushed by Hillary Clinton by a 66%-32% margin and there is little indication that Sanders has put in more work in Tennessee since then. Polling may indicate that Sanders will be victorious, but there are too many factors that point to him underperforming in the state relative to his polling. One event that could effect turnout is the horrific tornado that struck Nashville this Tuesday. There have been at least 22 fatalities confirmed and the damage is extensive. Please consider donating to a relief fund for the victims.

Predicted Winner: JOE BIDEN

TEXAS

With Bernie Sanders poised to win California, Texas has become an absolute must-win for Joe Biden. If Biden were to lose the two biggest states in the country, then it will be very difficult to make up the delegate difference later on. Sanders’ campaign is well prepared for a long primary and Biden will not be able to simply outlast him. That is why Biden has made Texas a priority to win on Super Tuesday. Biden rallied with Pete Buttigieg in Dallas, Texas, on the eve of the election and even rolled into Texas staple Whataburger with Beto O’Rourke. Once again, however, early voting is likely to play a major factor in the race. Despite receiving the endorsement of Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, many Texans had already cast their votes for the two candidates. There is no way to change those votes once they are cast and it is possible that close to 10% of all votes cast will be for a candidate who has already dropped out of the race. Texas is very diverse and Biden will need the full weight of the state’s black voters to come out in support of him. Likewise, Bernie Sanders will need a strong performance with Latino voters in Texas’ border region with Mexico. A number of suburban Texas Democrats originally hail from other states such as California and New York, which makes their voting habits somewhat harder to nail down. Texas should be decided by less than 5% and while Joe Biden has made up ground, it is likely too late for him to pass Bernie Sanders.

Predicted Winner: BERNIE SANDERS

UTAH

Utah is another forgotten Super Tuesday state. There has been an extreme dearth of polling in Utah and none of the polls show a candidate reaching 30%. Sanders dominated Hillary Clinton by an absurd 79%-20% margin in 2016, which is the best information we have to go off of for 2020. While 2020 will no doubt be closer, it is likely that Sanders will once again emerge victorious in the Beehive State.

Predicted Winner: BERNIE SANDERS

VERMONT

Vermont is Bernie Sanders’ home state and he is leading in the state polls a margin of about 40%. The state is the easiest to call out of all the Super Tuesday states.

Predicted Winner: BERNIE SANDERS

VIRGINIA

Virginia is another make or break state for Joe Biden. The state contains a large percentage (19.17%) of black voters and Biden even visited the state just days before Super Tuesday. Paired with Biden's high profile endorsements from former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) and Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA 10th District), it is clear that Virginia is a high priority for Biden. Recent polling has indicated that Biden’s efforts in the state have been paying off. He currently holds a double-digit lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average for Virginia and there is little indication that another candidate will step up to challenge him. Bernie Sanders has the best shot to make a run at Biden, but it is clear that the Commonwealth is low on the priority list for Sanders. Expect Joe Biden to roll to victory in Virginia.

Predicted Winner: JOE BIDEN

If all of these predictions come to fruition then Bernie Sanders will come out with eight states, including California and Texas, while Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren would win five states and one state respectively. These results would put Sanders on the fast track to winning the Democratic nomination. Wins for Sanders in California and Texas would make it very difficult for Joe Biden to overcome Sanders delegate advantage in future states. Super Tuesday feels like it is only the start of the Democratic Primary, but a strong performance by Sanders could effectively end the race on Super Tuesday.