South Carolina Primary Preview: Joe Biden's Last Stand

After an enormously underwhelming start, Joe Biden may finally get his first primary victory this Saturday in South Carolina. A victory would not only boost Biden’s 2020 chances, but also provide the 78-year-old with a symbolic win. South Carolina would be Biden’s first ever primary/caucus victory despite Biden having run twice previously in 1988 and 2008. 

South Carolina will provide the first true test of Joe Biden’s support among black voters. For the entire 2020 campaign we have heard endlessly about Biden’s strength among black voters. So far, however, Biden has been unable to utilize his support among black voters. Iowa and New Hampshire contained a miniscule number of black voters, while in Nevada, Latinos are the dominant minority group. Now, in the fourth contest of the Democratic Primary, we will finally be able to gauge where black voters stand in the 2020 Primary. 

Black voters made up a whopping 61% of the Democratic electorate during the 2016 South Carolina Primary. The South Carolina electorate also skewed heavily female, as 61% of 2016 primary voters were women. Perhaps more importantly is that 65% of the 2016 South Carolina primary electorate was 45 years and over. This translates into an electorate that is heavily made up of black women and older voters. 

South Carolina’s demographics present the ultimate opportunity for Joe Biden. From his time as Barack Obama’s Vice President, Biden has earned plenty of street credit with black voters. Many are drawn to his down-home demeanor and genuine support of Barack Obama during his presidency. Biden has shown his dedication to South Carolina by rallying in the state on the night of the New Hampshire Primary and making the state a center piece of his campaign strategy. Biden has staked his entire campaign on winning South Carolina’s primary. 

If Biden does not win South Carolina, then his campaign could permanently lose its claim to being the most electable Democrat. A large number of Democrats only want to vote for Biden because they perceive him as being a safe pick and the candidate best able to take on Donald Trump. Black voters, in particular, have historically chosen their Primary candidate based on who they think has the best chance to win in the general election. Biden needs to maintain the perception that he is electable and anything short of a win in South Carolina, a state Biden was once favored by over 25%, will severely crippled his chances of winning the Democratic nomination.  

One man who has seen his chances of winning the Democratic nomination skyrocket in recent weeks is Bernie Sanders. Coming off wins in New Hampshire and Nevada, Sanders has momentum, money and a passionate base of support behind him. Despite these strengths, South Carolina is not the best fit demographically for Sanders. For Sanders, the age of the South Carolina Democratic electorate presents a major obstacle. Sanders, particularly in New Hampshire, has struggled to win voters over the age of 45, compared to those voters under 45. In New Hampshire, Sanders only captured 17% of the 45 and older electorate, while collecting a robust 42% of the vote among those under 45. 

With approximately 2/3 of the South Carolina electorate being over the age of 45, Sanders will have to greatly improve his vote totals compared to New Hampshire. Sanders is absolutely capable of improving among older voters, however, he has not spent as many resources in South Carolina as he did in Nevada, Iowa, or New Hampshire. Perhaps the relative lack of resources spent by Sanders was a nod to Biden’s perceived strength with the South Carolina electorate, but it will likely cost Sanders a potential victory in the Palmetto State.

Surprisingly one candidate who has been polling right up with Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden is Tom Steyer. While Steyer has not finished in the top five in any state so far, he has thrown a mountain of money at South Carolina in the hopes of establishing a foothold in the 2020 race. Steyer doesn’t seem to have any policies that are especially pertinent to the South Carolina electorate, but he has been all over the state’s airwaves. This strategy has paid off so far for Steyer as polls are indicating that he will far out-perform his showings in the first three states. 

While a win for Steyer is unlikely he should finish in the top three in South Carolina. Unfortunately for Steyer, a third place finish may not be enough for him to see a path forward in the 2020 race. Steyer has fought valiantly, but outside of South Carolina there are no other states where he is polling in the top three. A third place showing for Steyer could force the billionaire out of the race after Super Tuesday. 

A candidate who could potentially push past Steyer and finish in the top three is Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg has never quite been able to solve his woes with black voters and this weakness will likely come to a head in South Carolina. While Mayor Pete has support among white South Carolina Democrats, his lack of inroads among black voters will likely doom him. Worth noting is that Buttigieg has received a huge amount of support is rural areas throughout the 2020 campaign. South Carolina does contain a relatively large percentage of rural voters and Buttigieg will be reliant on those voters to put him back in contention. Buttigieg’s campaign has been attempting to downplay expectations all week, however, and it is clear that his team does not feel confident going into Saturday’s primary. It is very likely that Buttigieg comes out of South Carolina with a 3rd or 4th place finish. 

Two candidates who will be eager to get out of South Carolina are Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar. Neither candidate has made South Carolina a focal point of their campaign, likely due to cash constraints. Klobuchar, in particular, never had an actual chance to create a real campaign infrastructure in South Carolina. Although Klobuchar received a large amount of money after her surprising 3rd place finish in New Hampshire, she still does not have the funds to keep up with Bernie and the billionaires. South Carolina was truly never on Klobuchar’s map as she was forced to prioritize Super Tuesday states over South Carolina itself. 

Prioritizing resources has also led to Elizabeth Warren having a difficult time competing in South Carolina. Warren, like Klobuchar, is prioritizing Super Tuesday and has seemingly given up on fully competing in the Palmetto State. Warren has a better campaign infrastructure in South Carolina, compared to Klobuchar, but she has not given that infrastructure enough resources to compete with Sanders, Biden and Steyer. If each of the candidates had more cash on hand, then they certainly would have been more competitive in South Carolina.

While Joe Biden has underwhelmed so far in the 2020 Primary, he appears set to finally get off the schneid and earn his first ever primary victory. Bernie Sanders has gained ground on Biden, and Tom Steyer remains competitive, but it appears that Biden has maintained enough black support to carry him over the finish line. Expect Biden to pull out a victory in South Carolina and finally earn that elusive first primary win.

PREDICTION:

1.     Joe Biden

2.     Bernie Sanders

3.     Tom Steyer

4.     Pete Buttigieg

5.     Elizabeth Warren

6.     Amy Klobuchar