DriveTo270

2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: STATE BY STATE PREVIEW- PART 1

Make no mistake, Ohio is going to be a tough slog for Joe Biden. Despite some favorable polls coming out in favor of Biden, it is likely that Donald Trump takes Ohio. Of the rust belt states, Ohio is likely to be Trump’s best performing state. Although Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection in 2018, the Democrats also lost the Governor’s race and several winnable Congressional races. In 2016, Donald Trump won Ohio by a 51.69% to 43.56% margin and there has been little indication that the Democrats have made enough inroads since 2016 to retake the state.

May Polling Update: Fact Or Fiction?

It is almost a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump will lose the popular vote in the 2020 election. Trump is likely to lose the popular vote by an even greater margin than the 2.1% that he lost by in 2016. Large blue states such as California, Illinois, and New York, have swung further away from Republicans and will produce large voter deficits for Trump….

Five Most Likely Vice-Presidential Candidates For Joe Biden

With Joe Biden announcing that he would choose a woman as his running mate, there are five women who stand out as his likeliest choices….

WHY BERNIE SANDERS FAILED: PART 2

Millennial voters long served as the backbone of Sanders’ support, and strong turnout among this group was mandatory for his victory. Sanders, however, was unable to turn out younger voters to the polls like he did in 2016, and, comparatively, millennial voters made up a much smaller share of the electorate in 2020… This disparity in turnout among the two age groups had disastrous consequences for Sanders, particularly in Texas.

WHY BERNIE SANDERS FAILED: PART 1

With Elizabeth Warren lagging badly in the early primary states, it appeared that Sanders had also overcome the biggest challenge to being “The Candidate” for the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party. It was time for Sanders to hit the accelerator and begin pushing his lagging rivals out of the race entirely. Instead of ramping up, Sanders made the mistake of taking his foot off the gas and wasted what could have been a pivotal moment for his campaign.

Mini Tuesday: March 10th Democratic Primary Preview

The most closely watched race of the March 10th primaries will no doubt be Michigan. Michigan not only has the largest total of delegates at 125 (36% of the March 10th delegates) but it contains a high amount of symbolism for Bernie Sanders. Sanders pulled off a truly massive upset in Michigan, in 2016, when he overcame a 21-point polling deficit to claim victory over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Sanders once again faces almost the exact same polling deficit…

Super Tuesday Preview and Predictions

Individual previews and predictions for all fourteen Super Tuesday states.

South Carolina Primary Preview: Joe Biden's Last Stand

South Carolina will provide the first true test of Joe Biden’s support among black voters. For the entire 2020 campaign we have heard endlessly about Biden’s strength among black voters. So far, however, Biden has been unable to utilize his support among black voters. Iowa and New Hampshire contained a miniscule number of black voters, while in Nevada, Latinos are the dominant minority group. Now, in the fourth contest of the Democratic Primary, we will finally be able to gauge where black voters stand in the 2020 Primary.

Nevada Caucus Preview: Will Bernie Sanders’ Latino Outreach Pay Off?

Although he slightly under-performed in Iowa and New Hampshire relative to his polling numbers, Bernie Sanders is in a solid position to win Nevada and take advantage of the state’s diversity. Recent polling has indicated that Sanders has made significant inroads, in particular, with the Latino population. A Data for Progress poll showed Sanders garnering an impressive 66 percent of the Latino vote. If Sanders does indeed receive this amount of support from Nevada’s robust Latino community, then he will be very difficult to beat.

New Hampshire Primary Preview

Despite the large field, New Hampshire appears destined to be a contest between Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. The top two vote-getters in the Iowa Caucus have also led by a wide margin in recent polling in New Hampshire. Sanders in particular, due to being from neighboring Vermont, has long made winning New Hampshire a priority of his…

THE REGIONAL PRIMARY SYSTEM: WHAT THE SYSTEM IS AND WHY DEMOCRATS NEED TO ADOPT IT

Iowa has highlighted how patently unfair and damaging the current system is for the Democrats… The solution to this damaging system and lack of uniformity is to split the United States into a Regional System. This Regional System would contain five voting regions with ten states each. For five weeks, beginning on the first Tuesday of February, one region and only one region would hold all of their primaries on the same date.

BERNIE SANDERS IS THE FRONT-RUNNER IN IOWA

No Democrat has had a better last three months than Bernie Sanders. After Sanders’ heart attack in early October, 2019, it appeared that his entire campaign might be in jeopardy. Elizabeth Warren was surging in the polls and threatened to take over the mantle as the liberal standard-bearer of the Democratic Party. As evidenced in the polls, at the time, it seemed as if the magic that had carried Sanders in 2016 was beginning to wane. Just three months later, however, Bernie Sanders have firmly established his place as the front runner in the Iowa Caucus.

PETE BUTTIGIEG AND AMY KLOBUCHAR'S LINKED CAMPAIGNS

Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are inextricably linked in most facets. Their base of voters may differ slightly with Klobuchar voters being more likely to have graduated college, but their appeal and folksy natures are quite similar. The two candidates have overlapping qualities that draw in voters not just for their personalities, but also for their perceived even-keel approach to politics…

DISCOUNT ELIZABETH WARREN AT YOUR OWN PERIL

In October, 2019, Elizabeth Warren was the front runner in the Iowa Caucus. Warren had come off a highly successful summer where she had offered a litany of specific policy positions that were well-received by Democrats and even some Republican voters…. Despite some issues, Warren still remains a force to be reckoned with in Iowa and should be discounted at your own peril…

Josh ShancerJanuary 22, 2020elizabeth warren, pete buttigieg, news, joe biden, bernie sanders, policy, iowa, iowa caucusComment

IOWA CANDIDATE PROFILE: JOE BIDEN

Iowa will not be kind to Joe Biden… On the surface the Democrat candidate seemingly best suited for success in Clinton County and thus the State of Iowa is Joe Biden. Biden has made a career for himself as a blue collar politician and a man of the people. His pro-union message would surely be thought to resonate with voters here. There’s one problem with this thinking though. Joe Biden is no longer a populist.

Josh ShancerJanuary 16, 2020joe biden, iowa caucus, news, candidate profile, biden, iowa, obama, barack obama, donald trump Comment

THE IOWA QUESTION

2016 was an unmitigated disaster for Democrats in Iowa. Donald Trump trounced Hillary Clinton by 9.5% as many farmers and blue-collar workers turned on the Democrats. Nowhere was this shellacking more emblematic than in Clinton County. Barack Obama had carried Clinton County with vote totals of 60.6% and 60.8% in 2012 and 2008 respectively. Donald Trump, however, carried Clinton County 48.9% to 43.8% over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Once reliable Democrat voters had suddenly fled the party seemingly overnight. It is these very same voters that Democrats must win back in order to flip the State of Iowa blue in 2020…

TAKEAWAYS FROM DEMOCRATS 4TH QUARTER FUNDRAISING

Bernie Sanders 4th quarter fundraising shows that he must be taken seriously by all remaining candidates. While many have written Sanders off, especially after his heart attack in October, 2019, Sanders may now have the necessary ammunition to take the Democratic nomination. Sanders has set the 2020 Democratic field ablaze with his staggering $34.5 million fundraising haul in the fourth quarter of 2019…

Josh ShancerJanuary 2, 2020ELIZABETH, bernie sanders, joe biden, pete buttigieg, andrew yang, fundraising, news, president, democrat, democrat debate, democrat primaryComment

WHY KAMALA HARRIS FAILED

On December 3, 2019, Kamala Harris, once a front-runner for the 2020 Democrat nomination, dropped out of the race for president. This development was not entirely unexpected and I myself, prior to the Fifth Democrat Debate, predicted that Harris would drop out before the Iowa Caucus. Still, this was a staggering fall for a woman who just a few months prior was rising in the polls.

Josh ShancerDecember 5, 2019kamala harris, kamala, 2020, news, joe biden, tulsi gabbard, elizabeth warren, pete buttigieg, donald trump, democrat primaryComment

FIFTH DEMOCRAT DEBATE PREVIEW

Pete Buttigieg has broken out in the polls in recent weeks. This has been especially pronounced in early primary and caucus states such as New Hampshire and Iowa. Buttigieg’s relentless advertising and voter outreach has been paying dividends for his campaign as recent polls show him ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

With the bump in the polls, expect several candidates, especially Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar to go after Buttigieg.

Election News

ELECTION NEWS