IOWA CANDIDATE PROFILE: JOE BIDEN
Iowa will not be kind to Joe Biden. In my previous article I spoke about how the ideal Democrat would appeal to downtrodden cities and towns such as Clinton, Iowa. The ideal Democrat would stay focused on an economic message that promotes wage growth, health care and ending the trade war with China. Iowa is home to many voters who backed Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then backed Donald Trump in 2016. The 2018 Midterms showed that it was indeed possible to convince these Obama/Trump voters to come back home to the Democratic party as long as candidates utilize a populist message geared towards the economy and health care.
On the surface the Democrat candidate seemingly best suited for success in Clinton County and thus the State of Iowa is Joe Biden. Biden has made a career for himself as a blue collar politician and a man of the people. His pro-union message would surely be thought to resonate with voters here. There’s one problem with this thinking though. Joe Biden is no longer a populist.
While populism is an exceptionally broad term, it is hard to argue that Joe Biden is still a populist. Biden has positioned himself as a centrist and establishment Democrat who will take great care not to completely reshape the United States. From issues to health care to foreign policy, a Biden presidency has been portrayed essentially as a continuation of Barack Obama’s tenure in the White House.
In areas like Clinton County, Biden’s positions will be a death sentence to his campaign. Clinton County fell away from the Democrats because its populace felt left behind during the Obama years. Population decline and loss of job prospects are everywhere in Clinton, Iowa and the region seemingly did not recover post-2007 recession.
A return to the Obama years was not and is still not what Clinton County voters want. Instead these voters want to see a shake up in the structure of Washington. Bernie Sanders carried Clinton County in the 2016 Iowa Caucus over Hillary Clinton because he was seen as a candidate who wasn’t more of the same like Hillary. Donald Trump’s victory in Clinton County can also largely be attributed to his promises to “drain the swamp” and shake up Washington D.C.
Although other candidates such as Bernie Sanders have been in Washington for decades, Joe Biden is the most likely 2020 contender to be associated with the so-called swamp. Before becoming Vice President, Biden served six terms as Delaware’s Senator from 1973 to 2009 and built up a hefty record on a multitude of issues. In effort to contrast themselves with Donald Trump, Democratic voters do want experience and Joe Biden brings plenty of that.
Biden’s experience and name recognition are two of his major strengths in Iowa. Biden is universally known among voters in Iowa and across the country, which means he did not have to spend a critical amount of money to introduce himself to Iowa voters like Pete Buttigieg did. Instead, Biden has been able to spend his resources elsewhere, including seeking out and receiving key endorsements such as Iowa Rep. Abby Finkenauer and former Governor Tom Vilsack.
Compared to Bernie Sanders, who has received mostly out-of-state endorsements from figures such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Ro Khanna of California, Biden can also point to the hometown nature of his supporters. While Sanders is relying on out-of-state star power, Biden can instead rely on these prominent local figures and utilize their vast resources to make calls and canvass for Biden. More importantly with the Iowa Caucus likely to be decided by a few thousand voters, the local presence of Finkenauer and Vilsack, among others, will be critical in helping to sway potential voters to Biden’s side on Caucus night.
Cory Booker may also be indirectly helping Biden. Booker dropped of the race for President on January 13, 2020, and there are indications that Biden stands to benefit most. 24% of Booker voters have ranked Biden as their second choice compared to 19% and 17% for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren respectively. With Iowa’s Caucus likely to come down to a few thousand votes, these former Booker voters will be critical to win. Despite Booker only garnering about 2% of the vote in Iowa polls, Biden would greatly benefit if the many passionate staffers from Booker’s team came out to caucus for him.
Perhaps Joe Biden’s greatest strength in Iowa, and also nationwide, is that he is viewed as the most electable Democratic candidate. Put it simply, a large segment of Biden voters is not voting for him because they think his policies most align with theirs but rather, they believe has the best chance of defeating Donald Trump. This rings most true with African Americans, whom are Biden’s largest support base. African American voters, in the primaries and caucuses, will largely vote for the Democratic candidate whom they believe can win. This most recently happened in 2008, when African American support for Barack Obama did not increase until after the Iowa Caucus when they saw that Obama truly had a chance of winning the Presidency.
There’s just one problem for Joe Biden. Iowa simply does not contain enough African Americans to lead Biden to victory in the state. African American voters make up only about 4% of Iowa’s population meaning Biden will have to look elsewhere for votes. While Biden will receive a substantial number of votes from white voters, many of whom view him as the best shot to defeat Donald Trump, it likely will not be enough. Biden’s support among millennial voters, a key demographic in the Iowa Caucus, is going to likely be extremely low which will force Biden to rely heavily on older voters. Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg all have a more enticing vision than Biden for millennial voters and this will cost Biden in Iowa. Millennials in particular will be largely uncompromising in opposing segments of Biden’s past record in the Senate and as Vice President.
While still a strength, Biden’s long record in the Senate will be heavily scrutinized, especially by Bernie Sanders and his supporters. Biden was instrumental in passing the Violence Against Women Act and preventing the ascension of the controversial Robert Bork to the U.S. Supreme Court, however, many liberal voters will not let Biden live down several of his past actions.
Biden’s campaign has continuously been plagued in particular by his vote on the Iraq War and perceived mistreatment of Anita Hill. These two issues in particular are likely to be lightning rods for Biden’s opposition and serve as direct threats to his national candidacy. Biden's Social Security deal with Republicans in 2010 is likely to be another issue used by Sanders, against Biden, in an effort to nibble away at Biden’s support among senior citizens.
Biden does not carry any flaws that are exclusive to Iowa, rather his flaws are those that he will face nationally. The average age of an Iowa citizen fittingly is equal to that of the national average, meaning that Iowa will provide a relatively good sample size to how Biden’s national flaws will hurt him on a local level.
Ultimately Joe Biden’s long record in Washington will be both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, Biden is seen as a steady and known figure who will bring normalcy to Washington and the White House. On the other hand, Biden has taken several actions and votes in the past that will likely be enough to push him out of first place in Iowa. The majority of Democratic voters’ view Donald Trump as being unhinged and unfit to be President. Biden represents a solid contrast to Trump in that he will not race bait, or make rash decisions. Biden is widely seen as someone who will treat the office of the presidency with a respect that has not been shown by Donald Trump. If Joe Biden is successful in Iowa it will largely be because caucus-goers have valued electability over policy excitement.
Despite his many strengths, it is hard to be too bullish on Joe Biden winning in Iowa. Being Barack Obama’s running mate will help Biden tremendously throughout the 2020 campaign, however, it will offer Biden very little in Iowa due to the demographic makeup of the state.
Areas like Clinton County switched from Obama to Donald Trump because they were deeply unsatisfied with the Obama Administration. Biden simply is not offering enough new ideas and policies that could convince Clinton County voters that his tenure would be different from Obama’s. The endorsements from Iowa mainstays Finkenauer and Vilsack and the dropping out of Booker will provide a nice boost to Biden, however, those positives are likely to be outweighed by millennial backlash and other candidates providing a more exciting vision than Biden. Look for Biden to slightly underwhelm in Iowa.
PREDICTION: Joe Biden Comes in 3rd Place With 20-23% of the Vote