DISCOUNT ELIZABETH WARREN AT YOUR OWN PERIL
This is Part 2 of my look into Iowa’s upcoming Caucus. Click here for my preview on Joe Biden.
In October, 2019, Elizabeth Warren was the front runner in the Iowa Caucus. Warren had come off a highly successful summer where she had offered a litany of specific policy positions that were well-received by Democrats and even some Republican voters. With Bernie Sanders’ heart attack on October 1, 2019, it appeared that Warren had the fast track to harnessing Iowa’s vibrant progressive base on election day.
For several reasons, however, Warren was unable to deal a finishing blow to Sanders. Instead Warren remains in a dogfight with Sanders and there are many indications that she is losing some of Iowa’s progressive base to Sanders. Despite some issues, Warren still remains a force to be reckoned with in Iowa and should be discounted at your own peril.
Warren has a large field operation currently in Iowa and has displayed some cross-over appeal to moderate and even Conservative voters. This has been due to her anti-establishment and populist message which will be potent in areas such as Clinton County, Iowa. In Iowa, a state that has been ravaged by President Trump’s trade war, Warren’s populist message and policy specifics are likely to resonate even with non-progressive voters.
Warren’s biggest asset on the campaign trail, and one that stands in sharp contrast to Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden, is her offering of policy specifics. Iowans, used to receiving hundreds of visits from prospective candidates, are attentive listeners to policy and Warren has given voters a whole buffet of policies to crack open. While Joe Biden, in particular, has dodged most policy specifics and focused his fire on Donald Trump, Warren has rolled out policy after policy after policy. These policy proposals have allowed Warren to directly contrast herself with fellow front-runners Biden and Buttigieg and gives voters a reason to listen to her. Contrasting herself with Biden is especially important since Biden symbolizes the Obama years, which a large segment of Iowa voters would like to forget.
Warren’s proposals are especially potent due to Iowa’s status as a caucus state. Winning over voters in caucus states is heavily dependent on recruiting passionate advocates who can sway undecided voters to their side. Politicians who are most successful in Iowa bring to the table an identifiable brand of policy proposals, vision and new ideas. Warren’s selfie lines have also become a mainstay in her campaign rallies and have allowed her to personally connect with thousands of potential voters. The selfie lines are part of a campaign theme in Iowa that is meant to show off Warren’s passion, personality and vision.
Barack Obama’s victory in 2008 and Bernie Sanders’ near victory in 2016 showed that a candidate’s vision for the country is tantamount to their success in the Iowa Caucus. Obama and Sanders each carried an unmistakable vision for the direction that they wanted to take the country in and were relatively successful in Iowa as a result. Elizabeth Warren, with her policy proposals on health care and border policy has made clear what her vision is for the United States and what direction she will take the country towards. Warren’s vision is one that will resonate with many progressive voters and also draw in a chunk of Obama-Trump populist voters.
Perhaps Warren’s greatest challenge, however, will be taking on Bernie Sanders and his army of supporters. Prior to the Democrat’s January Debate, CNN released allegations that Sanders had told Warren that a woman cannot win the presidency. Warren, in an interview, then seemingly confirmed the conversation took place and that Sanders had indeed told her that a woman could not win the presidency. Whether the allegations were true or not, a fire was set off among many of Sanders most ardent supporters. In a display of misogyny and sexism many Sanders supporters furiously took to social media to lob a slew of attacks on Warren.
The attacks on Warren have been long brewing, as many Sanders supporters have been itching for a fight. In particular Warren’s rise to the top of the polls and her change of heart on Medicare For All in December, 2019, fueled these attacks. A large portion of Sanders supporters and non-aligned progressives also felt betrayed by Warren’s backing down from her original Medicare For All plans. Warren had been pitched by progressive publications as the next best thing to Sanders. After Warren’s change on Medicare For All, Sanders’ supporters felt that Warren had not been entirely forthcoming with her true intentions.
Whether fair or not, Warren is going to have to deal with an aggressive and motivated contingent of Sanders supporters in Iowa. Bernie supporters from here on out will be seeking to poach every single one of Warren’s voters and permanently crush her campaign. This will be especially true on Caucus day where Bernie supporters are sure to target Warren backers in an effort to get them to switch their vote. While many progressive voters bemoan the hostilities between the two campaigns, all must admit that the gloves have been taken off between the two candidates. Bernie Sanders’ campaign had already launched a campaign to undermine Warren’s support through targeted scripts and with the current tension it would not be unreasonable to expect more fireworks between the two campaigns.
The good news for Warren is that many of the people who have taken to social media to express their outrage were likely already going to vote for Sanders. Warren’s loss of support in Iowa from October to December largely coincided with Sanders’ rise in the polls. Both Sanders and Warren have recently seen their support somewhat stabilize at 20% and 16% respectively, meaning that Warren’s loss of voters to Sanders has already been reflected in the polls.
It is likely that the recent developments tension between the two won’t lead to much change up until the week prior to the Iowa Caucus. Warren’s response to the “women can’t win” question and her overall debate performance earned high praise from pundits and likely voters. Put simply, Warren is still in the fight and it would be foolish to dismiss her chances. Look for Warren to slightly exceed expectations in Iowa, but fall slightly short of winning the Caucus.
PREDICTION: ELIZABETH WARREN COMES IN 2nd PLACE WITH 20-24% OF THE VOTE