PETE BUTTIGIEG AND AMY KLOBUCHAR'S LINKED CAMPAIGNS
This is Part 3 of my look into the Iowa Caucus. Click here for my preview on Joe Biden and Here for Elizabeth Warren.
Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are inextricably linked in most facets. Their base of voters may differ slightly with Klobuchar voters being more likely to have graduated college, but their appeal and folksy natures are quite similar. The two candidates have overlapping qualities that draw in voters not just for their personalities, but also for their perceived even-keel approach to politics. Neither candidate, unlike Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, is viewed as one who will attempt to tear down the current political establishment in favor of another. Instead, Buttigieg and Klobuchar have each marketed their positions as ones that will improve the current system rather than changing the system entirely. Success, for the two candidates, has largely been garnered from people gravitating towards their personal style of politics.
Being from the Midwest, both Buttigieg and Klobuchar have an advantage over their peers in that they come across as more genuine and understanding of the issues facing Iowa citizens. Sanders, Warren and Joe Biden are all from the northeast United States and many Iowa voters have appreciated the Midwestern roots of Buttigieg and Klobuchar. The down-to-earth nature of these two has endeared them to many in the Iowa electorate and earned each of them devoted followings.
Based on demographics of Iowa, the upcoming Caucus may also represent the best chance for either of Buttigieg or Klobuchar to crack the top 3 in the vote totals. Both candidates have struggled mightily to gain traction with African American voters and it is no secret that each of them will fare poorly in states with high African American turnout. Fortunately for Buttigieg and Klobuchar, Iowa is 90.7% white and only 4.0% percent African American.
Due to these demographic realities, it is imperative that both candidates do well in Iowa or else they will likely struggle to gain traction in more diverse states such as South Carolina and Nevada. Buttigieg, in particular, polls well both locally and nationally with white voters despite his well-publicized struggles to gain the support of African Americans. Iowa also does not contain a sizable Latino population, which is also a demographic that Buttigieg has struggled to gain traction in.
Ultimately, Pete Buttigieg is a candidate suited well for Iowa. His folksy midwestern style presents a vision for the country that directly appeals to Iowans who have been hit hard by Donald Trump’s trade war. Buttigieg has zero connections to the Obama/Biden era and he brings a plethora of fresh ideas to the table. Often, Buttigieg has focused on faith and dignity as major themes of his campaign and his down to earth personality has won him many supporters in Iowa. Buttigieg parlayed these strengths to take a short lived lead in the polls during November and December of 2019 and he appeared to be on his way to victory in the Iowa Caucus.
In recent weeks, however, Buttigieg has seen his support drop to the point that he is now placing 3rd or 4th in many polls. The reason for this was the combined assault of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Klobuchar during the December 2019 Democrat Debate. Klobuchar in particular landed the harshest blow on Buttigieg when she eviscerated his lack of experience and electoral success.
Until the December Debate, the 38-year-old Buttigieg had been successful in turning his relative lack of experience into a strength. With trendy moments, sharp wit and some unfortunate dance moves, Buttigieg became celebrated as a youthful and sophisticated voice in the Democratic party. With Sanders, Biden and Warren all in their 70s, Buttigieg was given an enviable opportunity to portray himself as a youthful alternative to the candidates twice his age. This portrayal paid dividends by allowing Buttigieg to take the mantle as the leader of the next generation of Democratic voters.
Unfortunately for Buttigieg, Klobuchar took a heavy swing at Buttigieg’s perceived strength of being a youthful outsider. Buttigieg’s youth was a strength of his since he was beginning to convince voters that his relative inexperience and lack of a connection to the Obama era made him more electable. This convincing was seen in early state polls where Pete possessed leads in Iowa and New Hampshire. Amy Klobuchar’s attack in the December Debate, however, hit Buttigieg’s electability argument straight in the nose.
Klobuchar deftly attacked Buttigieg for losing the only state-wide race he ever ran for in Indiana. In fact Buttigieg, in 2010, had lost in his only state-wide race for Indiana State Treasurer to the since disgraced Richard Mourdock. Youth, as Klobuchar insinuated is useless if that individual cannot actually win an election. Being so young, the onus is on Buttigieg to show that he is electable and can achieve victories that other candidates cannot. The attack on his electoral record, by Klobuchar, punctured the notion that Pete was a winner. Instead, debate watchers got to see Klobuchar state that she is not only experienced but also undefeated in state-wide races, while Buttigieg has been unsuccessful when attempting to do the same.
Another strength of Buttigieg’s that Klobuchar has successfully attacked is the notion that Buttigieg is the top midwestern candidate and most likely to understand the issues facing Iowa. Klobuchar, who hails from neighboring Minnesota, is viewed as a candidate who highly represents Iowa values. This presents a problem for Buttigieg in that he himself needs to be viewed as the candidate who most represents Iowa values. Instead, Klobuchar, with her tell it as it is and no-non-sense approach has been able to position herself for that role. Polling in Iowa has provided indications that Klobuchar has siphoned off a small but significant number of former Buttigieg supporters.
Klobuchar has made a huge bet on Iowa by visiting all 99 counties and making a point to directly connect with voters in every corner of the state. In a state where the winner could be decided by a few thousand voters/caucus-goers, Klobuchar needs ever vote she can get and Buttigieg cannot afford to lose any of these voters. The result has been a tug of war between the two candidates. Klobuchar has the ability to reach 10% of the total Iowa vote (This does not include the Caucus delegate vote) and if Klobuchar does this threshold, then it will likely spell doom for Buttigieg’s chances.
Iowa is tailor maid for Pete Buttigieg, and he will be a force throughout the entire state. Buttigieg, like Klobuchar, has recognized the demographic advantages in play in Iowa and he has invested a vast sum of his $76 million fundraising into the state. All of the fundraising has allowed for the former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana to put his name on the map and topple several candidates, such as Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker, who were thought to be strong contenders for President.
Amy Klobuchar, however, is not going to go quietly into the night like O’Rourke, Harris or Booker and she may be Buttigieg’s Achilles heel. With their overlapping appeal, Klobuchar and Buttigieg’s election nights will be largely tied to one another. If Klobuchar earns 10% of the vote in Iowa, then it will likely mean that Buttigieg will earn less than 20%. If Klobuchar underperforms and only hits about 5% of the total vote, then it will likely mean that Buttigieg will finish with over 20%.
The main goal for Pete Buttigieg is obviously to win Iowa. It is discernable from local and national polling, he has made a massive investment into Iowa at the expense of other important early voting states such as Nevada. No candidate needs to win the Iowa Caucus more than Buttigieg. Buttigieg must prove that he is electable and winning Iowa would be a massive first step towards doing that. Anything short of a victory, however, will put a significant damper on Buttigieg’s aura of electability and he could see his robust fundraising dry up as a result.
A win for Buttigieg, on the other hand, could launch him into true front runner status, especially if he’s able to convince African American voters, like Barack Obama did in 2008, that he is electable. African Americans are more likely to choose a candidate based on their ability to win and also protect hard fought civil rights victories. Winning in Iowa could help Buttigieg accomplish this, but it is more likely than not Buttigieg doesn’t win the Iowa Caucus.
Similar to Buttigieg, it is unlikely that Amy Klobuchar will win the Iowa Caucus. Despite this, if Klobuchar can crack 10% of the vote then she will have provided a solid showing in the state. For Klobuchar to truly be a player in the race going forward, however, she must defeat one or more of Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg. If Klobuchar can accomplish this, then that would mean one of the other four candidates not only massively underperformed and would see their perceived electability tumble over a cliff.
Defeating one of the other four contenders would also provide Klobuchar with a fundraising boost and lend credibility that she is more electable than previously thought. Klobuchar, like Buttigieg, has also heavily struggled in polling outside of early voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. She needs to put forward a strong result in Iowa, or else she could find herself falling out of the race before March.
PREDICTIONS:
Pete Buttigieg finishes in 4th place with 15-19% of the vote*
Amy Klobuchar finishes in 5th place with 8-12% of the vote*
*Vote totals represent the percent of the total vote that each candidate will receive. The totals do not include the percent of delegates that each candidate will gain through the Caucus.