BERNIE SANDERS IS THE FRONT-RUNNER IN IOWA
This is Part 4 of my look into the Iowa Caucus. Click here for my preview on Joe Biden, Here for Elizabeth Warren and Here for Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar
No Democrat has had a better last three months than Bernie Sanders. After Sanders’ heart attack in early October, 2019, it appeared that his entire campaign might be in jeopardy. Elizabeth Warren was surging in the polls and threatened to take over the mantle as the liberal standard-bearer of the Democratic Party. As evidenced in the polls at the time, it seemed as if the magic that had carried Sanders in 2016 was beginning to wane. Just three months later, however, Bernie Sanders has firmly established his place as the front runner in the Iowa Caucus.
There are several reasons for Bernie Sanders’ rise in the polls, however, healthcare paired with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (AOC) endorsement were perhaps the most significant. These events, combined with his supporters’ unwavering belief in him, made him a formidable frontrunner. Time and time again, Sanders has stuck to his core principles, which has endeared him to a large swath of the electorate.
The most important of those principles is Sanders’ position on Medicare For All. Sanders’ belief that health care is a “human right” is the core tenant of his proposal to provide every American with comprehensive health coverage and eliminate premiums and deductibles. In Iowa, health care is the dominant issue on the campaign trail, and Sanders’ Medicare For All Plan has struck a positive cord with voters.
According to a Des Moines Register poll, 77% of Sanders’ Iowa supporters prefer Medicare For All over any other health care policy. For an issue that elicits such passion and division, this cohesion is striking. In comparison, just forty-eight percent of Pete Buttigieg supporters and 42% of Joe Biden supporters preferred their candidate’s public option plan, as opposed to other healthcare plans. Instead of having to twist and compromise on health care like Elizabeth Warren did, Sanders can proceed full speed ahead on Medicare For All knowing his supporters will back him. Warren received the ire of many on the left because her healthcare plan involved implementing a public option before transitioning to Medicare For All. Sanders plan does not do this, and instead moves the health care system directly into Medicare For All.
Sanders has provided few specifics on how his administration would pay for Medicare For All, however, this has not diminished his supporters’ enthusiasm. Sanders has proven to be the only serious Democratic candidate who has refused to give an inch on Medicare For All. His supporters truly believe that Sanders will fight to the very end for them and they trust him not to compromise on the final version of Medicare For All. This shows that Sanders’ supporters are more united in their views on the most important issue, to date, in the campaign.
Under Iowa Caucus rules, a candidate must win 15% of a precinct in order to receive a delegate. If a voter’s preferred candidate fails to reach the 15% threshold, then the voter can switch their allegiance to another candidate. Due to these dynamics, the Iowa Caucus favors young, energetic surrogates who can best advocate for their preferred candidate and compel other voters to join their corner.
Bernie Sanders’ surrogates and supporters will likely be one of the most enthusiastic groups on Caucus-night, and will strongly advocate for non-Sanders supporters to pick Sanders as their second choice. This vigor is sure to help Sanders become a second choice of voters and further boost his chances for victory.
It is likely that Sanders would not be in his current position if it weren’t for his high-profile endorsements, chief among them from AOC. AOC, along with several members of the "Squad", including ascendant Democrats Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib, endorsed Sanders on October 15, 2019. The Squad has been in the news for a variety of reasons, but, most importantly for Sanders, they are savvy at social media and are prolific fundraisers. In a short period, the Squad has garnered heavy influence in the Democratic Party, especially among younger Democrats, and they have utilized that influence in supporting Sanders’ bid for the White House.
The combined energies of AOC and the Squad, along with backing from socialist publications such as Jacobin, helped Sanders’ raise an unprecedented $34.5 million in the 4th quarter of 2019. These totals far outpaced his Iowa rivals, including Elizabeth Warren's $21.2 million, Joe Biden's $22.7 million and Pete Buttigieg's $24.7 million. As a result, Sanders had nearly 50% more money than his rivals, which can propel him forward in these final days before Iowa. Add this to Sanders’ sturdy social media backing, and you can see how Sanders has turned the tide in the Iowa polls. Sanders currently has a three-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average and it is highly possible that he will win by a larger margin.
Sanders’ support in Iowa largely comes from voters under the age of 50, and he is the first choice of a whopping 39% of Iowa Caucus-goers, according to a Monmouth poll from January 29, 2020. Sanders did struggle in the same poll among voters 65 and older, but his strength among young liberals is unmatched. His supporters are also highly enthusiastic and protective of their candidate. Surrogates such as Zephyr Teachout and Nina Turner have blasted everyone and anyone who they consider a threat to Sanders. Turner in particular has relentlessly attacked every Democratic candidate under the sun and despite this unorthodox approach, it appears that Sanders has benefitted greatly from it in the run up to Iowa.
Sanders will also benefit from the lack of a single, anti-Sanders candidate. Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, who many consider to be representatives of the moderate wing of the Democratic party, could each split the moderate caucus vote. These three are the most likely candidates to eventually emerge as the counter-balancing candidate to Sanders, but so far none have taken that mantle. What this means is that Sanders will not face a dedicated or coordinated opposition candidate in Iowa.
Overall, Bernie Sanders has to be considered the favorite to win the Iowa Caucus on February 3rd. With his supporters’ enthusiasm, vast resources, and lack of a true opposition candidate, Sanders should roll through the caucus. Expect Sanders to win the Iowa Caucus and head towards the New Hampshire primary with new momentum.
Prediction: Bernie Sanders Wins The Iowa Caucus With 25 – 28% Of The Vote*
*Vote totals represent the percent of the total vote that each candidate will receive. The totals do not include the percent of delegates that each candidate will gain through the Caucus.