May Polling Update: Fact Or Fiction?
With coverage of COVID-19 soaking up much of the news cycle, the 2020 Presidential race has become somewhat of an after-thought. Polling, however, is still being conducted, and has shown Joe Biden with a seemingly insurmountable advantage. If you are to believe this current polling, then you would believe that Biden is a shoo in for election. The issue with this polling is that very few people truly believe that they are accurate.
Due to the inaccuracies of several polls, during the 2016 Presidential Election, both Democrats and Republicans have trouble believing overly optimistic polls. In 2016, Democrats believed polls that portrayed Clinton as a shoo-in winner, only to get burned when Clinton lost. Republicans, on the other hand, turned the negative polling into a rallying cry and painted themselves as underdogs battling the establishment.
Despite the hesitance to embrace polling, there are several aspects of the numbers that do provide key insight into the 2020 election. Below are the aspects of current polling* that I consider Fact or Fiction:
*All polling numbers are gathered from the RealClearPolitics polling averages
Fact: Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the total popular vote by 5.3%
It is almost a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump will lose the popular vote in the 2020 election. Trump is likely to lose the popular vote by an even greater margin than the 2.1% that he lost by in 2016. Large blue states such as California, Illinois, and New York, have swung further away from Republicans and will produce large voter deficits for Trump. Meanwhile, large states that Trump won in 2016 are likely to produce razor thin margins. States such as Texas, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, will be nail biters in 2020 and as such will prevent Trump from running up the large margins that he would need to win the popular vote. Despite these factors, Trump could still win the Electoral College even with a loss of 5.3% in the total popular vote.
Fiction: Joe Biden leads by 5.5% in Michigan
If any state polling should give Democrats nightmares about 2016, it is this one. Polling in Michigan, in 2016, had predicted Hillary Clinton to win by a similar margin only for her to shockingly lose the State. While Democrats showed renewed strength in Michigan, in 2018, by taking back the Governor’s mansion and several House Districts, there are still several barriers to Joe Biden. The post-industrial centers of Michigan swung heavily towards Trump in 2016, and Biden will have to counteract that either by bringing these voters back into the fold or by increasing Democratic support in the Detroit suburbs. Biden should have the slight upper hand in Michigan, but it seems highly unlikely that he would win the State by more than 2-3% at best.
Fact: Joe Biden leads in Pennsylvania by 6.5%
The further away we get from 2016, the more Donald Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania looks like an aberration rather than a trend. Pennsylvania, in 2020, is likely to treat Trump in a similar way to how North Carolina treated Barack Obama between 2008 and 2012. Trump’s issue in Pennsylvania is that his base has eroded in multiple areas throughout the state. Democrats have experienced somewhat resurgent strength in the western part of the state while Republicans have seen the degradation of Republican standing in the Philadelphia suburbs. Put together these factors point to Joe Biden having an edge on paper in Pennsylvania. Biden, who was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania, has also made the Keystone State a centerpiece of his campaign and his overall record fits in well with its electorate. Trump has a lot of work to do in Pennsylvania if he is to close the current polling gap.
Fiction: Joe Biden leads by 3.2% in Florida
This is just simply not happening. Florida is far too polarized and does not contain enough swing voters for Joe Biden to win by such a margin. Only once in the past five Presidential Elections has the margin of victory been greater than 3.2%. Even Barack Obama, in a banner year for Democrats in 2008, could only muster a margin of victory of 2.8%. Florida was also one of the few bright spots for Republicans in 2018, and there is little indication that this won’t continue in 2020. Considering all of the factors Joe Biden, at his best, is likely to only be capable of winning Florida by about 1%. Trump will remain the slight favorite in Florida regardless of what current polling is indicating for the State.
Fact: Donald Trump leads Iowa by 2%
Donald Trump is on the fast track to win Iowa, but the result will be much closer in 2020 than his nearly 10% drubbing of Hillary Clinton in 2016. The 2018 Midterm elections showed that Democrats still possessed residual strength in the State as they managed to win 3 of the Hawkeye State’s 4 Congressional Districts. Republicans must take the challenge seriously in Iowa or else they will run a huge risk in losing the State. While Iowa likely won’t have a huge impact on the electoral college as a whole, Trump’s performance in the State will be critical to incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst’s reelection chances. Ernst’s polling performance has been highly linked to that of Trump and neither can afford a slip up from the other. Look for the results in Iowa to be close on election night but for Donald Trump to slightly pull ahead.
Fiction: Texas is a dead heat between Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Despite a strong showing from Beto O’Rourke in the 2018 Senatorial Election, Democrats are still likely one more Presidential cycle away from making Texas a true dead heat. Texans voted for incumbent Governor Greg Abbott by a healthy 13 point margin in 2020, and it is likely that Ted Cruz’s unpopularity was a key cog in the Senate race being as close as it was. Democrats will make Texas Republicans sweat in 2020, but it is likely that Trump wins the Lone Star State by a margin of 3-5% rather than a percentage point or two.