New Hampshire Primary Preview

What a mess the Iowa Caucus was. The delay in releasing results not only embarrassed the entire Democratic party, but it also muddled some of the momentum that candidates usually receive after Iowa. Nothing exemplifies this more than the fact that no Democratic candidate dropped out after the Iowa Caucus. While New Hampshire will likely winnow the field down somewhat, this is still an exceptionally large field with at least half a dozen contenders.

Despite the large field, New Hampshire appears destined to be a contest between Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. The top two vote-getters in the Iowa Caucus have also led by a wide margin in recent polling in New Hampshire. Sanders in particular, due to being from neighboring Vermont, has long made winning New Hampshire a priority of his. The Democratic Socialist is still pulling in astounding fundraising totals and has utilized those funds to create a juggernaut of a campaign in New Hampshire.

No matter where you go in New Hampshire, Sanders and his campaign are seemingly everywhere. The usual hallmarks of a Sanders campaign, including huge rallies, celebrity appearances and populism have all made their presence felt throughout the state. This presence has created a potent Get Out the Vote Effort that mirrors the 2016 New Hampshire Primary. Sanders performed strongly in New Hampshire, in 2016, and much of his old coalition in the Granite State still remains. As a result, Sanders has held a convincing lead in the New Hampshire polls and he is in a great position to win. Overall there is a lot to like about Sanders’ chances in the New Hampshire primary. Sanders should win in New Hampshire, but he will face a spirited challenge from Pete Buttigieg.

Bernie Sanders’ was always going to make him a top threat to win the New Hampshire Primary, due to his fundraising prowess and 2016 victory in the state, but Pete Buttigieg’s place near the top was not so easily predictable one year ago. Buttigieg used his savvy fundraising ability and youthful appeal to launch himself into the national conversation in the spring of 2019 and he has not looked back since. Questions did remain if he could actually compete, but Iowa has largely put an end to those questions. Now, New Hampshire will provide Buttigieg with the perfect opportunity to show that he can sustain his current success.

New Hampshire demographics will benefit Buttigieg. New Hampshire’s racial demographics are nearly identical to that of Iowa's as both states are relatively small and largely white. All of this means that Buttigieg has a great opportunity to carry over his success from Iowa into New Hampshire. Buttigieg will not have to make any major changes to his overall primary pitch and only need to tune his positions specifically for Iowa. Additionally, Buttigieg will not have to face a large number of African American voters, with whom he has struggled to make inroads with during the campaign. Polling has indicated that Buttigieg did receive some upward momentum after Iowa, but Buttigieg’s campaign is certainly bemoaning the fact that they didn’t receive enough a bump due to Iowa’s botched release of results.

In any case, Buttigieg is well setup for a strong showing New Hampshire. Buttigieg has used some of the $2.7 million he raised the day after Iowa to blanket the airwaves in New Hampshire and he received further advertising support from the group VoteVets. Buttigieg is charging hard in New Hampshire, but he may be running out of real estate to catch Bernie Sanders. It is likely that Buttigieg will put a scare into Bernie Sanders, in New Hampshire, but fall just shy of victory in the Granite State.

Another candidate on the rise in New Hampshire is Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar has parlayed her powerful debate performances and strong showing in Iowa into positive momentum headed into New Hampshire. Make no mistake that New Hampshire could present a major turning point for Klobuchar. Klobuchar, in some polls, is polling ahead of Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. If Klobuchar can finish ahead of those two in New Hampshire, then she could begin to make the claim that not only is she a top centrist candidate, but also that she is the top female candidate in the race.

Klobuchar would benefit greatly by taking the mantle from Elizabeth Warren as the top female candidate in the race and New Hampshire represents her best chance to do this. It is clear that Klobuchar’s even-keeled and modest campaign approach has paid major dividends as she has emerged from an after-thought to a potential contender. Klobuchar’s voter base is primarily made up of educated white voters and, like Buttigieg, New Hampshire’s demographics are well-suited for her. New Hampshire is among the most educated states in the entire country and its heavily white population will give Klobuchar one of her best opportunities in the entire cycle to deliver at the polls. Don’t be surprised to see Klobuchar finish in third place, ahead of Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.

Joe Biden, meanwhile, is in trouble. After his disastrous performance in the Iowa Caucus he desperately needs to have a strong performance in New Hampshire. The problem is that New Hampshire is very similar to Iowa demographically. New Hampshire’s population is 93.03% white and just 1.53% African American and these demographics will be yet another death sentence to Biden. African Americans are far and away Biden’s best polling demographic and New Hampshire contains a negligible number of these voters. Put simply, Biden does not currently have the ability to win states that contain only a small proportion of African Americans.

New Hampshire has such a short turnaround from Iowa that Biden simply doesn’t have enough time to regain momentum lost from Iowa. Biden will have to rely on goodwill from his tenure as Vice President and hope his attacks on Pete Buttigieg manage to stick. South Carolina, with its large African American electorate, will give Biden a chance to reset the momentum of the campaign, but this will come too late for New Hampshire. Momentum is currently set for Joe Biden to finish 4th or 5th in New Hampshire which would be disastrous for the Biden campaign.  At all costs Biden must overperform in New Hampshire so that he can protect the perception that he is the candidate most uniquely suited to beat Donald Trump. Expect Joe Biden underperform in New Hampshire just like he did in Iowa.

Another candidate who is seeking to turn a new page in her campaign is Elizabeth Warren. Despite a very solid and respectable third place showing in Iowa it seems like Elizabeth Warren’s campaign is running out of steam. Warren has been unable to wrest away mainstream media coverage from Sanders or Buttigieg and her polling numbers have sagged as a result. Perhaps most concerning is Warren’s apparent fundraising crunch and her statements that she must be “careful” with her money. After Iowa, Warren pulled about half a million dollars in advertising from the airwaves in order to conserve cash. Warren’s lackluster 4th Quarter fundraising indicated that she would face some money troubles and her campaign has seemingly stalled due to the lack of funds.

A large ad or media campaign could give Warren some momentum in New Hampshire, but she currently lacks the resources to pull this off. Even worse for Warren is that unlike Joe Biden, she does not have a fall back state such as South Carolina. Biden has the ability to recover in the polls because South Carolina’s primary will contain a large proportion of African Americans that could deliver to him a win. Warren does not have one single demographic or social group like this that would make her an early on paper favorite in the remaining states. Warren is likely to be stuck in the middle in New Hampshire and while a third place finish would hardly be disastrous, it would show that Warren might lack the extra gear to put her over the top.

PREDICTION: Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire by 2% - 5% over Pete Buttigieg.  

1st: Bernie Sanders

2nd: Pete Buttigieg

3rd: Amy Klobuchar

4th: Elizabeth Warren

5th: Joe Biden