Nevada Caucus Preview: Will Bernie Sanders’ Latino Outreach Pay Off?
With the heavily white Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary in the rearview mirror, the 2020 Democratic Primary now shifts to more diverse terrain. Nevada, in large part due to Las Vegas’ casino industry, is a very diverse state. White people make up only 48.7% of the population while Latinos and African Americans make up 29.0% and 10.1% respectively. Asians make up another 8.7% of the population. These demographics are very different from those in Iowa and New Hampshire, which each have white populations of over 90%. For the first time in the 2020 campaign, Democrats will be able to get a gauge on where Latinos and, to a lesser extent, Africans Americans stand on their preferred candidate.
Although he slightly under-performed in Iowa and New Hampshire relative to his polling numbers, Bernie Sanders is in a solid position to win Nevada and take advantage of the state’s diversity. Recent polling has indicated that Sanders has made significant inroads, in particular, with the Latino population. A Data for Progress poll showed Sanders garnering an impressive 66 percent of the Latino vote. If Sanders does indeed receive this amount of support from Nevada’s robust Latino community, then he will be very difficult to beat.
Unlike a large portion of the country where Latinos vote rather inconsistently, Nevada does have a committed Latino voter base. This is in large part to former Nevada Senator and former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s legacy of political operations and the plentiful unions in the state. Reid’s political operations helped pull current Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto to victory, in 2016, when few other Democrats experienced success. As a nod to Reid’s sway, candidates such as Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden have highlighted their work with Reid in hopes of receiving the former Senator’s support. The most important aspect of Reid’s political operation includes the 130,000 member Culinary Workers Union (CWU), which is one of the most powerful local unions in the country. Reid, throughout his time in public office, worked tirelessly to increase CWU’s influence and he still maintains close ties with CWU’s leaders.
The CWU staffs nearly all Las Vegas hotels and provides robust health coverage to its 130,000 members and their families. Considering that Nevada's population is approximately 3.14 million this means that anywhere between 5%-10% of all Nevada residents, when counting the families of these members, receive their health care from CWU. CWU’s membership is also very diverse. According to their website the CWU’s membership is 54% Latinex, 19% White, 15% Asian and 10% Black. CWU is diverse, well connected, and its members are highly active in politics. An endorsement from CWU is extremely coveted and although it is not mandatory, in order to win Nevada, it would provide a major boost to any campaign.
That is why the CWU made waves when the Union refused to endorse any Democratic candidate and took an additional step to criticize Bernie Sanders’ Medicare for All proposal. In a flier, CWU stated that Sanders’ proposal would “End Culinary Healthcare.” This led to a flurry of criticism of the Union by supporters of Sanders, some of whom sent threatening messages to two top CWU officials. Sanders later condemned the behavior of his supporters, but it is unclear what effect these exchanges will have in the long term. Sanders did not receive the endorsement of the CWU during the 2016 campaign and he is fully capable of winning Nevada without their endorsement. An additional benefit for Sanders is that his opposition is heavily divided.
No candidate on paper appears ready to step in and challenge Bernie Sanders. Joe Biden has been polling in second place, but he is only a few points ahead of a cavalcade of other candidates. Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Tom Steyer and Amy Klobuchar are all polling between 9.5%-14.5% based on the RealClearPolitics polling average. These five candidates are splitting too much of the vote for any one challenger to clearly emerge against Sanders. If any of these candidates are likely to make a major run at Sanders, it will likely be either Buttigieg or Klobuchar. Independent and undecided voters broke hard for Buttigieg and Klobuchar in New Hampshire and the same should happen in Nevada. In just one week, since New Hampshire, Buttigieg has surged from only a 7% average to 12%. Klobuchar has also increased her share from 3% to 9.5%.
While Buttigieg and Klobuchar received somewhat mixed reactions for their Nevada Debate on February 19th, their momentum is likely to continue on through the February 22nd Caucus. The biggest issue for these two candidates is that they are running out of time and real estate to make a concerted run at Sanders. Sanders is well-entrenched in Nevada, while Buttigieg and Klobuchar have had to spend precious resources to introduce themselves to Nevada voters. A large number of undecided voters and independents will likely break towards Buttigieg or Klobuchar in the final few days, and it is a good bet to expect each of them to exceed their current polling averages.
Joe Biden, meanwhile, has seen his support fall dramatically. Since January 25th, Biden’s support in the polls has fallen from 25% to 16%. Also worrisome for Biden is the fact that he has massively under-performed in Iowa and New Hampshire, relative to his polling numbers. Biden’s high name recognition allowed him to build an early lead in Nevada, but much of this support appears to have been soft. Throughout the 2020 campaign, Biden was portrayed as the candidate best suited to defeat Trump. This image has been nearly obliterated due to Biden’s 4th and 5th place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively.
The Caucus in Nevada will also not be kind to Biden. Iowa has shown that hard-charging, passionate support is needed in order to win a Caucus, and Biden has not yet been able to demonstrate that his campaign possesses this energy. Biden should perform better than he did in Iowa or New Hampshire, due to Nevada’s demographics, but it likely will not be enough. Biden’s best demographic remains African Americans, and Nevada’s population is only 10% African American. It is possible that Biden will abandon Nevada in the final day or two in order to take a last stand in South Carolina. Expect Joe Biden to once again under-perform in Nevada and finish in 4th or 5th place.
Elizabeth Warren, like Biden, is another candidate who needs a jolt to the heart of her campaign. While Michael Bloomberg is the perfect fodder for Warren to attack, she will need more in order to re-secure her place among the 2020 favorites. Warren’s campaign experienced a significant setback in Nevada when it was revealed that several women of color left Warren’s campaign due to a supposed toxic work environment, including tokenization and feelings of being marginalized. Combined with Warren’s poor performance in New Hampshire, her campaign is gasping for any positive momentum it can get.
Luckily for Warren she may have gotten that positive momentum from the Nevada Debate. Not only did Warren absolutely crush Michael Bloomberg on the issues of stop and frisk and sexual abuse, but she was able to appeal to the many women who have been subjected to sexual abuse or misconduct in the workplace. Warren’s cross-examination of Bloomberg, on the issue of his numerous non-disclosure agreements for workplace misconduct, was one of the highlights of the entire debate.
If Warren outperforms current polling then it will likely have been due to her debate performance. Warren will also hope that the Caucus style will allow her to over-perform her polling average, like she did in the Iowa Caucus. Watch for Warren to gain some momentum in the final days of the campaign and finish with around 15%-20% of the vote.
Although Bernie Sanders did not have a stand out debate performance, he remains the front-runner to win the Nevada Caucus. The support Sanders has among Latinos will likely be too great for any other individual candidate to counteract. A win would legitimize the effort that Sanders and his campaign have put into driving turnout among Latinos in Nevada and will spur even greater momentum for Sanders going forward. That said, Bernie Sanders does still have to contend with the fact that independent and undecided voters are not breaking his way. The support for Sanders that is seen in polling is likely near the maximum amount of support that he is capable of garnering. This is in stark contrast to 2016, when Sanders consistently outperformed his polling numbers, due in large part to undecided and independent voters making up their minds to vote for him at the last minute.
Sanders will likely slightly under-perform or meet his polling expectations, but this should still be enough to achieve victory in Nevada. The decision of the CWU to not endorse a candidate, perfectly mirrors the muddled mess that is taking place below Sanders. None of the other candidates have done enough to stand out from one another in Nevada. CWU would like to be a kingmaker in Nevada politics, which means that they must get their endorsement right and not pick a lower performing candidate. Due to this thought process, the CWU did not feel confident enough to endorse a candidate against Sanders for fear of picking a weak-performing candidate. Had the CWU chosen someone like Pete Buttigieg or Elizabeth Warren, then the calculus of the Nevada Caucus might have been different. As it stands, no candidate appears ready to topple Sanders in Nevada, barring a last minute endorsement from the CWU.
PREDICTION:
1. Bernie Sanders
2. Pete Buttigieg
3. Elizabeth Warren
4. Joe Biden
5. Amy Klobuchar