TAKEAWAYS FROM DEMOCRATS 4TH QUARTER FUNDRAISING
In the final quarter of 2019, the remaining Democratic candidates for President were locked in a quiet, but all-important battle to increase their fundraising totals. High fundraising totals provide evidence that not only is a campaign resonating with the masses, but that the campaign has the funds to continue to expand their political operation. Expansion can include opening field offices, hiring more staff and purchasing critical data lists of voters. Those candidates who did not meet their fundraising goals were quickly spit out of the race such as Julian Castro. While Castro’s coffers went dry, several other candidates, notably Bernie Sanders, posted key totals that will shape the race through Iowa.
Bernie Sanders 4th quarter fundraising shows that he must be taken seriously by all remaining candidates. While many have written Sanders off, especially after his heart attack in October, 2019, Sanders may now have the necessary ammunition to take the Democratic nomination. Sanders has set the 2020 Democratic field ablaze with his staggering $34.5 million fundraising haul in the fourth quarter of 2019. This amount completely dwarfs Pete Buttigieg’s solid $24.7 million total from the fourth quarter and more importantly has blown out Elizabeth Warren's projected $20 million. Andrew Yang also raised an impressive $16.5 million while several other candidates have not yet reported their totals. Below are my takeaways from Democratic candidates’ 4th quarter fundraising:
1. Bernie Sanders Just Elevated Himself As The Favorite In Iowa
If the Iowa Caucus were to be held today, it is likely that Bernie Sanders would emerge victoriously. Sanders’ $34.5 million haul includes some funds that were transferred from his previous Senate campaigns, but the total sum is still astronomical. It is clear that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement has paid dividends for Sanders as he increased his fundraising from $25.3 million in the 3rd quarter of 2019 to $34.5 million. This will allow him to continue to expand his campaign operation Iowa and gives him greater resources to open more field offices, coordinate canvassing efforts and locate activists to caucus on election day.
Sanders’ fundraising also shows that he has a massive amount of data on his donors. Data on the electorate is critical not for money and get-out-the-vote efforts, but for identifying trends and policy preferences among voters. Sanders still needs to convert his extensive donor list into votes on election day, but it is clear that the more liberal members of the progressive movement are rallying around him. Among Biden, Buttigieg and Warren, momentum is clearly with Sanders right now. Leftist publications such as Jacobin and Teen Vogue have rallied around Sanders in recent months and have dutifully attacked his rivals, like Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg. These attacks are likely another reason why Sanders’ fundraising numbers increased, while progressive rival Elizabeth Warren struggled. Sanders’ supporters have grown increasingly protective of him during this period and they are seeking to eliminate any threats against him. Neither Warren nor Sanders can win while the other is still in the race. It is imperative for each candidate that they knock the other out, so that they themselves can harness the full strength of the progressive wing of the party. The 4th quarter fundraising numbers have put Sanders on track to deliver a devastating blow to Elizabeth Warren.
2. Elizabeth Warren Is In Major Trouble
Purity tests in presidential elections are a one-way ticket to failure. They are destructive to a political party’s brand and force that party to expend time and resources attacking each other as opposed to their true enemies. No political party can survive when their standard bearer demands that all their supporters, and even other candidates, conform to one single point of view. Part of the problem with purity tests is that candidates who issue them often have violated the test themselves. Those candidates who violate their own purity tests can quickly lose credibility and alienate previously receptive voters. Elizabeth Warren has learned this lesson the hard way.
In the Democrat’s December debate Elizabeth Warren pummeled Pete Buttigieg over his so-called “wine cave” fundraiser. It was the latest personal broadside launched by Warren as she had previously attacked individual billionaires such as Lloyd Blankfein, Pete Ricketts, and Leon Cooperman. While the attacks fit into Warren’s overall message, they simply did not land the way Warren was hoping. The attacks on the individual billionaires came out of nowhere, and Cooperman in particular blasted Warren for demonizing him.
Warren’s attacks on Buttigieg also failed to hit the mark, as Warren herself had partaken in similar fundraisers just a year prior. While the attacks as a whole were a rallying cry for Warren’s ardent supporters, they had a chilling effect on white collar, suburban voters who were previously receptive to Warren. Warren has initiated one too many purity tests during the last few months and this has caused a large bloc of voters to be skeptical of her true intentions. Alienating previously receptive white-collar voters is one of the reasons for Warren’s downturn in fundraising during the 4th quarter.
Perhaps most damaging to Warren’s fundraising, however, has been the attacks she has received from the progressive publications that are currently fueling Bernie Sanders’ rise. Warren is currently being squeezed from the left and center which is a dangerous combination. Warren has such a huge campaign infrastructure that she needs a massive number of donations in order to keep fueling her campaign. If Warren continues to lag in her fundraising, she will find herself out of the race sooner rather than later. She will have to find a way to increase her fundraising and bring back donors.
3. Andrew Yang Impresses
Although Yang’s fundraising lagged behind Sanders (as did everyone) he posted a phenomenal $16.5 million. Yang’s base is made up of predominantly young males and the internet is often friendly territory for Yang. Yang has demonstrated that he has a dedicated base that will keep him in the 2020 race long after many of his rivals drop out. While it is likely that Yang won’t ever top 10% of the vote in any individual state, his proficient fundraising will allow him to stay in the race as long as he wishes.
4. Joe Biden Presses Ahead
While Joe Biden’s $22.7 million was a far cry from Sanders’ total, it was still a solid showing for the anointed front runner. Biden managed to stay close to Buttigieg’s fundraising machine and most importantly outraised Elizabeth Warren. Warren briefly led Biden in the polls back in October and she possesses the potential to severely damage Biden’s brand and electability. Biden’s candidacy is built entirely on the notion that he is safe and electable. Very few voters support Biden directly for his policies. Instead they are supporting the former Vice President because he is considered to be the best bet to beat Donald Trump. When Warren led in the polls, she began to tear down some of Biden’s aura that he was the most electable candidate in the race. Now with Warren possibly on the downswing, Biden can once again claim that he is the most electable candidate. Iowa is likely to be infertile ground for Joe Biden, but his 4th quarter fundraising will assist him in more friendly lands, like South Carolina and Nevada.