Mini Tuesday: March 10th Democratic Primary Preview
One week after Joe Biden’s surprising Super Tuesday performance, six more states will take to the polls on March 10th to cast their votes for President. Five of these contests (Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri and Washington) are primaries, while one contest (North Dakota) hosts a caucus. These six states together will assign 352 delegates or 9% of the total delegates up for grabs in the Democratic primary.
While 9% is a large total of delegates, the March 10th primaries, with the exception of Michigan, have gotten relatively little attention. Super Tuesday dominated the headlines in the week leading up to the March 10th primaries and a more important slate of delegates is up for grabs just one week later, on March 17th when Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona take to the polls. In the meantime, however, votes in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington must still be cast. Unlike Super Tuesday, which primarily contained states in the south, the March 10th primaries will take place in more diverse geographic locations. Below are my previews for each March 10th primary state.
Idaho: 20 Delegates
Some Democratic primary states that have already voted, such as Iowa and New Hampshire, have seen out-sized election coverage despite their relatively smaller populations. Other states, such as Utah and Vermont, have been largely ignored, but still saw a modicum of polling take place. Idaho on the other hand has seemingly been forgotten entirely. There appears to have been no polling taken whatsoever in Idaho for the Democratic primary and who the Gem State will vote for will basically come down to a guess.
Idaho is a heavily Republican state which resulted in the 2016 Democratic primary only seeing about 24,000 voters. This low vote total from 2016 means that it will be difficult to discern many trends in the state. A 10,000-vote uptick would drastically change the face of Idaho’s primary in 2020 and that is indeed what might happen. Bernie Sanders crushed Hillary Clinton by a 78% to 21.2% margin in 2016, but Joe Biden should prove to be a much stronger foe this time for Sanders.
One clue to how Idaho may vote is in its demographics. Idaho contains similar demographics to Utah. Both states are between 85% to 90% Caucasian and Idaho’s population is approximately 26% Mormon, which is the highest ratio of Mormons outside of Utah. Utah was one of the few bright spots for Bernie Sanders on Super Tuesday as he won the state by 17% over Joe Biden. This result points to Sanders being favored to have similar success in Idaho. That said, it should be noted that moderates Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg did combine for close to 45% of the vote in Utah, which exceeded Sanders’ 35% total.
Idaho is nearly impossible to nail down, but demographics and past contests do point to Sanders performing relatively well in the state. Regardless of the result, however, don’t expect to hear much about Idaho on election night.
Predicted Winner- Bernie Sanders
Michigan: 125 Delegates
The most closely watched race of the March 10th primaries will no doubt be Michigan. Michigan not only has the largest total of delegates at 125 (36% of the March 10th delegates) but it contains a high amount of symbolism for Bernie Sanders. Sanders pulled off a truly massive upset in Michigan, in 2016, when he overcame a 21-point polling deficit to claim victory over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Sanders once again faces almost the exact same polling deficit as he did in 2016. Sanders should make Michigan closer than his current 22-point polling deficit, but achieving victory would be a total shock, just as it was in 2016.
Michigan experienced horrifically low turnout in 2016 and black turnout was particularly bad. Sanders would need for the extremely low turnout to repeat itself in 2020 for him to stand any chance of victory. Biden has so far seen higher turnout among black and suburban voters than Clinton did in 2016 and this bodes poorly for Sanders. It should be noted that black voters living in northern states do not follow the exact same voting patterns as black voters in the south, but they should still give Biden about a 40% - 50% edge.
Sanders, like Washington, desperately needs a victory in Michigan. A win in Michigan would give Sanders a desperately needed momentum boost going forward. If turnout is low then Sanders has the ability to make a move, but if the Michigan experiences even average turnout then it will likely produce a Biden victory. If Joe Biden does achieve victory in Michigan then it will provide continued momentum to his phoenix-like campaign. Michigan has the greatest ability of all the March 10th states to influence the remainder of the campaign and Joe Biden looks to be on the fast track to obtaining that momentum.
Predicted Winner- Joe Biden
Mississippi: 36 Delegates
Of all the March 10th primary states, Mississippi is the easiest to call. Black voters are Joe Biden’s core base of supporters and that demographic made up a whopping 71% of the electorate in the 2016 Mississippi primary. Joe Biden will win big in the Magnolia State and the more interesting race will be to see how many votes Bernie Sanders can accumulate. Sanders’ campaign in Mississippi is in such dire straits that he could struggle to meet the 15% threshold to be allocated delegates in the state. Expect Mississippi to be called immediately for Joe Biden.
Predicted Winner- Joe Biden
Missouri: 68 Delegates
Recent polling has indicated that Joe Biden holds a nearly 30% lead over Bernie Sanders in Missouri, but this number should be taken with a grain of salt. Polling has been somewhat sparce in the state and Sanders was competitive in the 2016 Missouri primary. There is little doubt, however, that Biden is the favorite to win Missouri especially when considering the demographics of the state’s 2016 Democratic primary. In 2016, voters over the age of 50 made up 50% of the electorate and that number is likely to grow in 2020. It is no secret that Sanders struggles with older voters and the relatively high percentage of black voters (21% of the electorate in 2016) will favor Biden. With all that said, Bernie Sanders’ campaign is taking Missouri very seriously. Sanders rallied on election eve in St. Louis and he will be seeking to peel off some of St. Louis’ black activist community from Joe Biden. Biden remains a heavy favorite, but the final vote tally should be narrower than the nearly 30% margin that is currently being shown in the polls.
Predicted Winner- Joe Biden
North Dakota: 14 Delegates
North Dakota is seemingly yet another state that has been forgotten in the 2020 primary. Like Idaho, North Dakota has not seen any specific polling for the primary race and any prediction is essentially a guess. What makes North Dakota harder than even Idaho to gauge is that the Peach Garden State is hosting a caucus. Sanders won North Dakota by a nearly 40% margin in the 2016 North Dakota caucus and that unfortunately is about the only recent predicator we have to go off of. Bernie Sanders showed in Nevada that he can perform extremely well in caucus states and North Dakota should be no different. If Sanders does lose North Dakota, then it will signal that he has had a catastrophic night.
Predicted Winner- Bernie Sanders
Washington: 89 Delegates
Washington is a must win state for Bernie Sanders. Polling indicates a very close race between himself and Joe Biden, but Biden has jumped out to a small lead in the most recent polls. Washington utilizes a vote-by-mail system, meaning that the election shouldn’t be influenced by the recent coronavirus outbreak that has taken place in the state. One impact that the coronavirus may have, however, is voters flocking to perceived safety.
Joe Biden has long been viewed as a safe and calming candidate for voters, particularly among those over the age of 50. Seattle has been the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. and the city has been essentially on lockdown for the past week. Biden, being viewed as the safer candidate, will likely benefit from the coronavirus lockdown. The outbreak has also prevented Sanders from changing the narrative of the 2020 campaign as most media coverage has focused on the coronavirus rather than Sanders himself.
One benefit for Sanders is that turnout, in part to the mail-in ballots, should be higher among younger voters than in previous states. Sanders struggled to turn out younger voters on Super Tuesday and Washington provides perhaps his best shot to turn these voters out in higher numbers. Sanders, however, still faces a number of headwinds in Washington and the state seems to be slowly trending away from him. Expect a very close race on election night with Joe Biden narrowly pulling ahead.
Predicted Winner- Joe Biden