FIFTH DEMOCRAT DEBATE PREVIEW
The Fifth Democrat Debate for the 2020 presidential campaign will take place on November 20, 2019 at 9:00 PM ET and be hosted by MSNBC. Expect a wide range of topics from impeachment, healthcare and electability to take center stage. In the past few weeks Pete Buttigieg has seized momentum in the campaign and has sharply risen in the polls. Recent polling shows Buttigieg to be ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire, despite national polls still showing Joe Biden ahead. Below are three things to watch for in tonight’s debate:
1. How Will Candidates Confront Pete Buttigieg?
Pete Buttigieg has broken out in the polls in recent weeks. This has been especially pronounced in early primary and caucus states such as New Hampshire and Iowa. Buttigieg’s relentless advertising and voter outreach has been paying dividends for his campaign as recent polls show him ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
With the bump in the polls, expect several candidates, especially Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar to go after Buttigieg. Amy Klobuchar in particular has a bone to pick with Pete Buttigieg. Recently, Klobuchar commented that Buttigieg would not have had the same success as a presidential candidate if he were a woman and Klobuchar is hardly the first candidate to make the charge of sexism during the 2020 campaign.
Klobuchar, who has seen a slight but noticeable rise in the polls in recent weeks, is also fighting for the same moderate and Midwestern values lane as Buttigieg. Landing a few successful blows on Pete could convince voters, especially in Iowa, that Klobuchar is midwestern voice that can lead the Democrats to victory in battleground states. An exceptional debater, Klobuchar will take on Buttigieg both for campaign purposes but also as a personal endeavor. During the 2020 campaign, Klobuchar has shown that she is not afraid to speak her mind or confront what she sees as a miscarriage of justice. Klobuchar likely sees this debate as her best chance yet to launch herself into the top tier of candidates. Expect her to come out firing during the debate.
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders likely will come out swinging against Buttigieg for ideological reasons. The progressive viewpoints normally espoused by Warren and Bernie have come under heavy fire from moderates in the Democrat party. For either Warren or Bernie to win, they must win the ideological battle between the moderates and progressives. To win this battle, they must knock down any top candidates who advocate for a more centrist Democrat party. With Buttigieg rising in the polls, he will face increased scrutiny from Warren and Bernie perhaps on the same level normally thrown at Joe Biden. In the fourth Democrat Debate, Buttigieg landed several blows on Warren her progressive ideology. Look for Warren to counter punch in the Fifth Democrat Debate.
Bernie Sanders must also be aggressive as he appears to be in danger of losing some of his millennial base to Buttigieg. Recent polls suggest that Buttigieg has taken a significant voter share away from Bernie, which would be a death knell to Bernie’s campaign. Millennials largely sustain Bernie’s campaign and he cannot afford to lose even a small fraction of that base if he hopes to win. Buttigieg has already taken down one trendy social media candidate in Beto O’Rourke and he has the potential to do the same to Bernie Sanders. In order to prevent this, expect Bernie, who is twice Pete’s age, to go on the offensive.
2. Is This Kamala Harris’ Last Gasp? A Poor Debate Performance Will Likely Force Her to Drop Out Before the Iowa Caucus.
Kamala Harris was supposed to be one of the top Democrat contenders for president in 2020. Her diverse background, charisma, professional accomplishments and fundraising ability were thought to make her a legitimate contender. Those thoughts seemed to be well founded as of July, 2019. After her impressive first debate takedown of frontrunner Joe Biden, Harris launched herself into second place in the polls for the Democrat nomination. This was on the heels of Harris drawing an astounding 20,000 people to her presidential kickoff event and raising an impressive $1.5 million in just the first 24 hours of her campaign. All signs seemed to be pointing up for Kamala Harris, but in just a few short months later her campaign appears to be on life support.
Kamala Harris’ takedown of Joe Biden helped temporarily launch Harris nearly to the top of the polls. This event, however, was the beginning of Kamala Harris’ downfall in the race. At the time of the first debate, in June 2019, Harris was only somewhat known, and many Democrat voters were still forming their opinions of her. Although she received a temporary boost in the polls, many Democrat voters, were turned off by her rehashing of an issue that took place about forty years ago. Additionally, the planned nature of the attacks was off putting to many as was Harris’ attempt to sell merchandise off of the debate performance.
Harris has not only sagged in the polls, but has totally cratered. She is polling behind Amy Klobuchar in Iowa and her campaign appears listless. Kamala Harris will not survive to Iowa unless she has a profound turnaround at the Fifth Democrat Debate. She must not only come out firing, but lay out several landmines in front of Buttigieg, Biden and Warren. Not only must she get these candidates to walk into the landmines (Such as walking Joe Biden into the segregated bus attacks), but also have those landmines change the entire shape of the debate in Harris’ favor. As a former prosecutor, Harris is an exceptional debater, but she will need the current frontrunners to make unforced errors in order for her to get back into the campaign.
If Kamala Harris has a poor debate performance then it is highly likely that she will drop out of the race before the Iowa Caucus. Harris’ campaign is in disarray and she needs a momentous debate performance for her to get back into contention. Expect Harris to attack early, but then get drowned out as the debate goes on.
3. Can Joe Biden Make His Case Effectively?
Joe Biden, despite his leads in the national polls, has seemingly fallen out of favor with many non-African American voters. Biden has nearly zero support among those under 30-years old and his recent marijuana comments are unlikely to help him with that demographic. More importantly, the impeachment proceedings Donald Trump are likely to loom large in the Fifth Democrat Debate. It is largely because of Joe Biden’s candidacy that the impeachment proceedings are active and expect Biden to be asked repeatedly about the proceedings. These questions are not ideal for Biden as it forces him to talk about his son’s business dealings in Ukraine and keeps Biden from making his case that he is the best candidate for President.
Joe Biden needs to express a vision for the country and this debate will be critical for him. He must rise above the inevitable questions on impeachment and express why his policies and personality would be most effective among the Democrat candidates. Biden can ill afford for Pete Buttigieg to take any of his centrist support and it is possible Biden may spring a few attacks on Buttigieg. While previous middling debate performances haven’t hurt Biden, he will eventually need to espouse a vision to get people more excited about his candidacy. Perhaps tonight will be the night that he will step up.