Why Texas’ 3rd Congressional District Will Turn Blue in 2020
Texas’ 3rd District at first glance hardly appears to be a congressional battleground seat. Collin County, which holds the entire 3rd District has long been inhospitable ground for Democrats. The District which extends through Plano, McKinney and portions of Richardson and Dallas is covered in its entirety by the booming Dallas metropolitan area. Not a single Democrat currently holds a seat in any level of government in the county (small portions of Collin County are covered by the 32nd District, which is represented by Rep. Colin Allred (D)). No Democratic Presidential candidate has won the county since homegrown Lyndon B. Johnson won it in 1964. Additionally, longtime Representative of the 3rd District and Republican stalwart Sam Johnson, was viewed as one of the most conservative members of the House. Johnson had represented the 3rd District since 1991, but in 2017 announced his plan to retire when his term ended in 2018.
Johnson’s retirement helped pave the way for Republican political veteran Van Taylor to emerge victorious over his Democrat challenger, Lorie Burch, 54.3% - 44.3%. Despite this history on the ground, however, the 3rd District is primed to flip from Republican to Democrat in 2020.
Democrats have long since given up on Collin County and the 3rd District as a whole. Democrats had so little organization on the ground in the District that they failed to even field a candidate against Johnson in 2012 and 2014. 2018 Democrat candidate Lorie Burch, in a wave year for the Democrats, managed to only raise a paltry $314,148 compared to Van Taylor’s respectable $3,762,294 raised. For reference, Colin Allred in the neighboring 32nd District, raised an impressive $5,853,957 against longtime Congressman Pete Sessions. Despite facing an incredibly anemic challenger and outspending her 10-1, Taylor only won by a margin of 10%. Yes, a 10% margin of victory in a great cycle for Democrats is a solid win for a Republican, but this margin should be raising alarm bells for the GOP in the 3rd District.
The 2018 midterms showed a noticeable trend of adults with college degrees breaking away from the GOP and trending towards the Democrats. Before the midterms, Republicans held 13 of the 40 districts with the highest percentage of adults over 25 with a college degree. After the midterms, only three of those seats remain in GOP hands. One of those three districts remaining in GOP hands happens to be Texas’ 3rd District.
Donald Trump’s low approval rate among college educated adults dragged down the entire Republican Party in 2018. According to exit polls, those with undergraduate and graduate degrees voted for Democrats by about a 20-percentage margin. An increasing general population, and one that is well educated, is political poison right now for the Republicans.
Collin County is among the fastest growing counties in the entire country. According to the 2000 Census, the county had a population of 491,675. By 2017, the county’s population had nearly doubled to 969,603 and more people continue to arrive by the day. These new arrivals are primarily young professionals who have come in droves to the bustling job market of the Dallas metropolitan area. Many of these new transplants grew up in the educated suburbs of Chicago, Los Angeles, Detroit, and New York City, among others. This recent inflow of educated young professionals is responsible for the skyrocketing population of Collin County and for the 3rd District’s impressive share of adults with college degrees.
Rep. John Culberson who represented Texas’ 7th District was defeated, in 2018, by his Democratic opponent Lizzie Fletcher, in a similarly situated district in the Houston suburbs. In Texas’ 7th District a robust 49% of the 25-and-older population has at least a bachelor’s degree. Culberson’s district, along with fellow defeated Republican Pete Sessions, experienced a near identical spike in new transplants moving into their respective districts compared to the 3rd District. Due to these factors, Culberson lost to Fletcher by 5%, despite having previously cruised to victory in previous election cycles in the once thought to be safe Republican district. Sessions lost by an even greater margin to now Rep. Colin Allred. The 3rd District has an even higher rate of 51.4% of people with a college degree, than either the 7th or 32nd District.
Throughout the 3rd District, massive unoccupied apartment complexes litter the landscape. These complexes, which stretch across the district from Richardson to McKinney, are heavy indicators that the population boom in Collin County is unlikely to end soon. Each complex is full of college educated northerners and Californians lured to the county by companies such as State Farm, Texas Instruments and AT&T.
As more college-educated professionals move in, the district will continue to lean more towards the Democrats. Donald Trump won only 55% of the vote in the 3rd District in 2016. This formerly conservative bastion where Ronald Reagan won 81.6% of the vote in the 1984 Presidential Election and Mitt Romney won 65% in the 2012 Presidential Election, now has a real possibility of going for a Democrat.
The Democrats, however, will need a much more potent candidate than Lorie Burch if they hope to win in 2020. Their bench is especially thin in Collin County and Democrats will likely need a strong self-funder paired with an infusion of Democratic Party resources in order to flip the District. Additionally, Democrats must target incoming young professionals by registering them in the 3rd District and convincing them to come out on election day. These young professionals are highly unlikely to donate large sums of money to a Congressional campaign, which is why a strong self-funder and party intervention will be needed to flip the 3rd District. Even with these constraints, the trend of highly educated suburbs converting from Republican to Democrat will make the 3rd District hugely competitive in 2020 and primed to flip under the right circumstances.
To be successful in 2020, Democrats must also nominate a candidate who fits the profile of the District. Lorie Burch, was an overall poor fit for the District as she lacked a military background, charisma and the ability to fundraise in a competitive campaign. The 3rd District has a long history of electing military veterans such as Rep. Van Taylor and former Rep. Sam Johnson.
Sam Johnson, in particular, heroically served as an Air Force pilot in multiple conflicts and survived a horrifying seven-year ordeal as a POW in Vietnam. Van Taylor, who was an Iraqi War veteran, is a snug fit for the 3rd District and his background is something the Democrats will have to counteract in order to emerge victorious in 2020. Democrats would be wise to also nominate someone with a military or security background.
Optimally the Democrats will nominate a young candidate, similar in age to the 42-year-old Burch or Colin Allred who is 36 years old. A youthful Democratic candidate will likely be necessary to gain control of the 3rd District before its current boundaries are redrawn.
The current makeup of the 3rd District will likely be altered prior to the 2022 Midterm Elections. Texas is likely to gain either 2 or 3 seats in the House of Representatives, which will necessitate a redrawing of the current boundaries of the 3rd District. The Republican-controlled Texas State Legislature will likely undertake a massive effort, as they did in 2010-2012, to ensure that Republican-held districts are reinforced.
Looking ahead to the next redistricting it is likely that the Republicans will supplement the 3rd District with the current 4th District. The 4th District voted for Rep. John Ratcliffe (R) by a 3 to 1 margin, in 2018, and has plenty of votes to spare in order to shore up the leaking 3rd District. In the meantime, Democrats are presented with a hidden opportunity in the 3rd in 2020. This is a race that is on no one’s radar despite the favorable education demographics for the Democrats. If the Democrats can find a Colin Allred type candidate, who focuses on health care, local issues and is a self-sufficient fundraised, to run in the 3rd District then this suburban Dallas district is very much in danger of flipping to the Democrats in 2020.
There are many challenges that Democrats face in the 3rd District including a non-existent bench, poor fundraising, and lack of Democrat DNA in the District. Despite this, the 3rd District is primed to flip due to its highly educated population and the large numbers of transplants entering the District. The Democrats would be wise not to let the 3rd District slip through their fingers. It is imperative that Democrats gain a foothold, through incumbency, in the 3rd District before the District is redrawn by the Republicans in the run up to the 2022 Elections. 2020 will represent a great opportunity for Democrats to take the 3rd District and, if they seize the moment, they could find themselves victorious in the once thought to be impenetrable 3rd District.