BATTLE ON THE BAYOU: LOUISIANA GOVERNOR’S RACE

“The choice for governor could not be more clear. John Bel Edwards answered our country's call and served as a Ranger in the 82nd Airborne Division. Or David Vitter, who answered a prostitute's call minutes after he skipped a vote honoring 28 soldiers who gave their lives…. David Vitter chose prostitutes over patriots. Now the choice is yours.”

This 30-second advertisement plastered the airwaves during Louisiana’s last gubernatorial race in 2015. Republican Senator David Vitter was running to become Louisiana’s next governor against Democrat John Bel Edwards. Vitter’s 2007 prostitution scandal was well known in Louisiana and his transgressions were put on full display in the 2015 campaign. Despite easily winning reelection in the 2010 senatorial race, Vitter was never truly able to shake off his past scandal.

During the 2015 gubernatorial debates, moderators often inquired about the scandal. Edwards deftly blasted the senator as being unfit to be the next governor of Louisiana, while simultaneously promoting his own centrist brand. David Vitter’s prostitution scandal coupled with outgoing Republican Governor Bobby Jindal's unpopularity would spell disaster for the Republicans. Edward’s centrist brand caught on with voters and the Democrat achieved a 12 point victory over Vitter to become Louisiana’s 56th Governor.

Unlike in 2015, Edwards will not have an extremely unpopular opponent to face. Edwards will not only face Republican businessman Eddie Rispone, but he must also contend with his state’s heavy Republican tilt. Edwards will also hope to achieve better results than fellow Democrat Jim Hood, in neighboring Mississippi, who was unable to overcome the Magnolia State’s Republican leanings in his own governor's race on November 5, 2019.

John Bel Edwards, like Mississippi’s Jim Hood, is not your typical Democrat. Edwards is pro-life, and supports gun rights, but has also championed liberal initiatives including Medicaid expansion and voting rights. The Louisiana Democrat is always quick to tout his bipartisan bona fides and has often decried the polarization of politics. In a state that voted for Donald Trump by a margin of about 20 points in the 2016 election, Edwards has and will continue to flash his independent streak on the campaign trail.

Edward’s opponent, Eddie Rispone, is among Louisiana's wealthiest individuals. Despite his wealth, Rispone was a relative unknown before he entered the race for governor. The 70-years old Rispone was active behind the scenes in Louisiana politics for years but was never truly a publicly known figure. Rispone had never run for public office prior to this year and the typical Louisiana citizen likely would not have recognized him on the street. While Rispone may have lacked name recognition, he certainly did not lack access to money. Rispone, a devout Christian who wakes up at 4:00 AM every day to study the bible, donated $10 million in personal money to his campaign fund to be used in the election. He used that money to vault him into second place in Louisiana’s jungle primary on October 12, 2019.

Louisiana is among the few states that utilizes a so-called "jungle primary". In the jungle primary all candidates for an office run together in one election. Put simply, Democrats, Republicans and independents all run on one ballot instead of multiple separate ballots. A candidate must achieve more than 50% of the vote in order to avoid a runoff. If there is no majority vote winner in the primary election, then the top two candidates advance to a run-off election otherwise known as the general election.

John Bel Edwards was far and away the top vote-getter in the jungle primary, however, he failed to eclipse 50% of the vote. This meant that a run-off election would have to occur. Edwards received 626,000 votes out 1,343,478 votes cast or 46.59%. Eddie Rispone meanwhile earned 368,318 votes or 27.41% of the vote, which edged out fellow Republican Ralph Abraham for second place. The 1,343,478 votes cast is an important number as only 1,114,336 votes were cast in the 2015 runoff election for governor. These numbers indicate that turnout was significantly higher in 2019 and that both sides are fired up for their respective causes.

Louisiana last had runoff elections for governor in 2015 and 2003. In those two prior elections, about 50,000 more people voted in the runoff election than did for the jungle primary. Donald Trump's numerous visits to Louisiana, since the primary, coupled with Edwards use of Trump in attack ads, are likely to increase turnout greatly in the runoff election. It would be little surprise if turnout for the runoff exceeded the normal 50,000 vote increase that normally occurs.

Early signs are already pointing to an increased turnout. Early voting has shown that African Americans have accounted for 31% of early votes before the November 16th election. This number is up from the African American early vote share of 25% in the jungle primary. These numbers would indicate that Democrats are doing a somewhat better job at turning out their core constituency of African Americans than in the primary. A Mason-Dixon poll showed Edwards winning 92% of the African American vote and the group is by far his most reliable constituency. Needless to say, it is critical that John Bel Edwards maintains this increase in African American turnout if he hopes to be reelected.

Republicans have become increasingly worried that the Bayou State may be slipping away from them. Recent polling has shown John Bel Edwards to have a small lead and Republicans have earmarked an additional $1 million just for the final two days of the race. While John Bel Edwards has somewhat middling approval ratings, he still carries the advantage of incumbency and he is not as unpopular as defeated Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin.

Similar to Andy Beshear in Kentucky, Edward’s campaign has focused heavily on healthcare, particularly his administration’s Medicaid expansion. Medicaid expansion has become a popular vehicle for poor and lower middle-class individuals to obtain health care and this is no exception in Louisiana. Louisiana has an extremely high rate of poverty and has seen its population drop in recent years. The result of this is that many Louisianans rely on Medicaid for health care.

Edwards has accused Rispone of wanting to end Louisiana’s Medicaid expansion and kick thousands of people off of their health care. Rispone himself has stated that he wants to “freeze enrollment,” until he can eliminate wasteful spending in the program. Regardless of his choice of words Rispone will end Edward’s Medicaid expansion if he were to be elected governor. About 470,000 people in Louisiana get their insurance from Medicaid which means this issue will be of the utmost importance for many who show up to the polls on November 16, 2019.

Another campaign push by Edwards has been to tie Rispone to Edward’s unpopular predecessor, Bobby Jindal. Jindal’s name has become political poison in Louisiana. The financial deficits Jindal racked up as governor, due to irresponsible corporate tax giveaways and budgetary cuts have left deep scars on the state. Rispone at all costs is seeking to avoid being tied to Bobby Jindal and has had his campaign craft an image of him as an outsider.

Rispone has also sought to nationalize Louisiana’s governor race. To uncertain results, Rispone has attempted to tie Edwards to liberal Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi. Additionally, Rispone has sought and received help from Donald Trump, who made a third visit to Louisiana on November 14, 2019 to campaign on behalf of Rispone.

Nationalizing governor’s races in 2019 has so far produced mixed results for the Republicans. Many Republicans credit Donald Trump and nationalization for nearly pulling the unpopular Matt Bevin across the finish line to victory in Kentucky, but Bevin still lost in the end. In Mississippi, now Republican governor-elect Tate Reeves heavily nationalized and won the governor’s mansion by about 6%. Despite the victory, the 6% margin was somewhat underwhelming and should put a damper on Republican hopes that they can win by simply nationalizing Louisiana’s governor’s race.

Rispone has used his personal story and outsider image to craft his own brand, but he has been fairly guarded in stating his policy positions. Instead of focusing on kitchen table issues, such as health care and the economy, Rispone has seemingly cared more about rhetoric and settling scores with the so-called left. In a bizarre advertisement aired in a local Louisiana newspaper, Rispone attempted to antagonize “radical leftists” by threatening to build the wall with Donald Trump and crack down on New Orleans status as a so-called “sanctuary city.” This attack was made by Rispone despite the fact that New Orleans is not a sanctuary city. Donald Trump is popular in Louisiana, and his rallies will certainly help Rispone, but nationalizing the race has its limits. Rispone’s shortage of policy specifics and lack of pushback against Edward’s Medicaid claims is likely to hurt his chances of winning.

Jon Bel Edwards may not have a historically unpopular opponent, like he did in 2015, but he maintains a very slim advantage over Eddie Rispone. Republicans have bet hard on Louisiana with Donald Trump’s visits drawing large crowds throughout the state. These efforts have moved the race closer, but it’s looking like it won’t be enough.

Republicans are worried about the African American turnout wiping Eddie Rispone out in what is increasingly looking like a high turnout election. While Republicans are motivated to turn out to the polls, Kentucky’s election showed that Democrats are even more motivated. Democrats will hope to motivate voters in the New Orleans suburbs to the extent they did in Kentucky’s Louisville and Cincinnati suburbs.  

If early voting is any indication Democrats have slightly increased their African American turnout, which is the true key for John Bel Edwards to win reelection. Both sides will have to execute their game plans to perfection in order to drive out their party’s base to its maximum. If the Democrats turn out the full potential of their African American base then it will be a good sign for their chances come November 16, 2019.

PREDICTION: John Bel Edwards (D) defeats Eddie Rispone (R) by a 1 – 4 point margin