KENTUCKY GOVERNOR RECAP: HOW ANDY BESHEAR UPSET MATT BEVIN AND WHY TRUMP IS IN TROUBLE FOR 2020
The political party that has won Kentucky’s governorship has gone on to see their party win the following year’s presidential election in every election cycle since 2003. If this cycle continues into 2020 then Donald Trump will find himself out of a job come next November.
In somewhat of a surprise, Democrat Andy Beshear narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Governor Matt Bevin 49.2% to 48.8% in Kentucky’s 2019 gubernatorial race. The race between the two was marked by health care, zombies, teacher unrest, and Donald Trump. Matt Bevin tied himself firmly to Donald Trump in 2019 perhaps as a way to mask his own unpopularity. By doing so, Bevin was attempting to put not only himself on the ballot, but also Donald Trump. Bevin was hardly the only candidate to tie himself firmly to Trump, but it is notable that every other major statewide race was won by a Republican. Republican pundits have argued that if it wasn’t for Trump Beshear’s margin of victory would have been even greater. This is difficult to quantify, however, and it will always remain a question for how much Trump assisted Bevin in the race.
Andy Beshear was buoyed by Jefferson County which contains much of the Louisville metropolitan area. Jefferson County gave Beshear a staggering 186,510 to 87,738 vote margin. These vote totals are notable because in Kentucky’s 2015 race for governor Democrat Jack Conway carried Jefferson County by only a 112,232 to 74,427 vote margin. In a race that was decided by about 5,000 votes, Beshear managed to outperform Conway in Jefferson County by over 70,000 votes. Despite losing Jefferson by a wide margin, Matt Bevin actually increased his own vote total in the county compared to 2015. Turn-out was sky high on both sides of the aisle and Beshear managed to harness the urban/suburban vote that Jack Conway was unable to in 2015. The reason for the massive increase in voter participation in Jefferson County was a combination of Donald Trump and Matt Bevin’s own statements on health care, guns and teachers.
Donald Trump’s presidency has been successful in keeping Republican voters engaged and motivated to vote. The one issue for Republicans is that Donald Trump has been even more successful in motivating Democrat voters to come to the polls. About 1,440,000 votes were cast in the Bluegrass State in 2019, which represented an astonishing jump in voters compared to Kentucky’s 2015 race. In 2015, only about 975,000 votes were cast for governor. While Matt Bevin was a lightning rod for controversy during his tenure as governor, it is clear that he was not the primary factor driving the sky high turnout in the state. Donald Trump had made this race all about himself when he visited Kentucky and his presence helped to gin up turnout on both sides.
Donald Trump’s presence was extremely profound in Warren County. Home to Western Kentucky University (WKU), Warren County previously gave Matt Bevin a 12,411 to 9,354 vote advantage in 2015 and a 28,673 to 16,966 margin of victory to Donald Trump in 2016. In 2019, however, Andy Beshear won Warren County by a 18,249 to 17,118 margin. Unlike in 2015 and 2016, college students at WKU actually showed up to vote in 2019. It is well known that college towns and campuses across the country tend to be more liberal leaning. Democrats need to squeeze out as many votes from college students as they can and Beshear’s victory in this county provides a blue print for Democrats across the country.
That blue print is that Democrats must turn out college students in droves for their eventual nominee in 2020. 18-24 year-olds voted disproportionately for third parties in 2016 and Democrats were unable to harness their true potential with the demographic. Donald Trump won Michigan, which boasts a 10 colleges of over 20,000 students, by about 10,000 votes in 2016. If Democrats had been able to turn out college students in Michigan, in 2016, at the same rate they turned out for Andy Beshear, then they likely would have won Michigan. Kentucky has shown that Donald Trump has motivated college students to come out and vote against him. If Democrats can bring college students out in 2020, then they will have the upper hand against Trump.
Beshear’s focus on local issues and an assist in rural areas from Democrat House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins also helped to bring his victory. While the massive increase in the number of votes in Kentucky’s urban/suburban areas helped lead to the defeat of Matt Bevin, it was Beshear’s efforts in rural Kentucky that truly prevented a Bevin victory. Rocky Adkins in particular is the individual most responsible for Beshear’s victory. Adkins, who was Andy Beshear’s opponent in the primary election, tirelessly canvassed and campaigned on behalf of Andy Beshear. Unlike Andy Beshear, Adkins is more of a roll up your sleeves and shout from the stump type of politician. He is direct when he speaks, and his skill set is perfect for getting the attention of rural voters. Beshear, had trouble appealing to rural voters in the primary election. He needed a figure like Adkins who knew the eastern part of Kentucky well and could appeal to voters there. It was ultimately the tag team efforts of Beshear and Adkins that helped pull Beshear over the finish line.
Andy Beshear could not afford to lose rural areas by a 75% - 25% margin and hope to win. His efforts and visits to places such as Hazard and Fancy Farm allowed for Beshear to present a message that appealed directly to rural voters. While Beshear still lost rural counties such as Ballard, Carlisle, Hickman and Fulton in droves, he overperformed in Eastern Kentucky counties such as Knott and Breathitt. Winning Knott and Breathitt counties was especially important since they were counties won by Matt Bevin in 2015.
Flipping even a few rural counties that Matt Bevin won in 2015 was critical in a race decided by 5,000 votes and shows that the Democrats, while on life support, are not completely dead in those areas. By speaking directly to rural voters and actually discussing important policies with them, unlike Hillary Clinton, Andy Beshear’s campaign provides a template for Democrats to win in areas like Iowa and rural Ohio. Democrats must engage in rural areas early and often and talk about kitchen table issues such as health care, opioid addiction and job prospects. If Democrats can stay focused on those issues, then they have the ability to eat into Donald Trump’s voter base in rural areas. Democrats absolutely should not assume that rural areas are too far gone.
Perhaps the individual who should be most worried about Kentucky’s results is Donald Trump. Local elections are in no way a perfect predictor of an upcoming national election, but the results show that Trump is in trouble in urban/suburban areas. Nowhere has Donald Trump lost more support than in educated urban/suburban areas. Prior to the 2018 midterm elections Republicans controlled 13 of the 40 congressional districts with the highest share of adults over the age of 25 with a college degree. After the 2018 midterms Republicans only controlled 3 of those 40 districts. Republicans have lost across the board in urban/suburban areas since Trump became president, and there is no indication that the bleeding will stop anytime soon. By hemorrhaging suburban voters, Trump will have to lean even more heavily on rural voters.
While Matt Bevin did underperform in rural areas, especially in eastern Kentucky compared to 2015, he still performed well and provided an indicator that Donald Trump’s rural base largely remains intact. The votes that Andy Beshear won in eastern Kentucky and other rural areas were largely due to his campaign itself and not the Democrat brand as a whole. Kentucky showed that Trump will still carry a large advantage with rural voters, which is a good sign for him in other rural states such as Iowa.
The caveat for Donald Trump is that he will need to get even more rural voters out to vote for him in 2020 than he did in 2016. Trump cannot count on the same number of rural voters being enough to pull him across the finish line, as they did in 2016. Democrats, as indicated by the 2018 midterms and Kentucky governor’s race, are highly motivated to turn out to the polls. What this means is that the Trump campaign must identify rural voters who stayed home in 2016 and convince nearly every single one to come out to vote for him. Trump has seemingly already squeezed out about as many rural voters as possible, but he will have to continue to press on to drive out more of these voters.
For roughly the last 30 years, Kentucky’s election for governor has served as a bellwether for the country as a whole. Kentucky voters’ preferences have predicted the victorious party for president in every election cycle, but one, since 1991. Kentucky has shown that if Donald Trump cannot find a more effective way to appeal to urban/suburban voters, then it is likely that his rural base will be overwhelmed in 2020.