Battle In Big Sky Country: Steve Daines vs. Steve Bullock
RATING: Toss Up
Few states exhibit an independent streak quite like Montana. In an age of straight ticket voting and increased polarization, Montana is an anomaly that deserves more attention. Montana citizens are fiercely independent and are not afraid to vote on personality over party label. The State has voted for a Democrat on the Presidential level just once since 1972, but conversely has only elected two Republicans to the Senate since 1953.
One of these Republicans is freshman Senator Steve Daines, who is seeking a second term in Big Sky Country. Daines is a Conservative Republican who usually votes in lock step with Donald Trump on the large majority of issues such as immigration and health. Daines did vote against Trump on the latter’s attempt to lift sanctions against three Russian companies in 2019 and played a role in creating the Republican led Roosevelt Conservation Caucus, which aims to reduce water and ocean plastic pollution.
Even with these initiatives Daines will absolutely run in lock step with Trump as election day nears. Trump will almost certainly win Montana and Daines is making what appears to be a smart decision on paper to run with his Party’s Presidential standard-bearer. Daines, however, will likely have to still differentiate himself from Trump if he is to hold off his challenger, outgoing Democratic Governor Steve Bullock.
Steve Bullock is the dream candidate for Democrats in Montana. He is one of the most popular and colorful Governors in the country and exhibits the independent streak that Montana voters have traditionally looked for in their political candidates. Bullock’s main priorities include campaign finance reform, conservation and climate change and protection of organized labor. Fresh off receiving national attention for his short-lived 2020 Presidential campaign, Bullock will also look to receive some fundraising help outside help from national Democrats due to his him currently being outraised by Daines by a significant margin.
Despite seeking out some fundraising from the Democratic apparatus Bullock, in all likelihood, will largely avoid contact with the national part. Donald Trump won Montana by just over 20% in 2016 and he is likely to win the State again by about a 12-to-18 point margin. Bullock will need to rely heavily on split ticket voters in order to knock off Daines. While Bullock is absolutely capable of performing such a feat, he first needs to land on even footing with Daines in the fundraising department. If Bullock allows Daines to maintain his current fundraising advantage, then Bullock will almost assuredly lose. Whether Bullock can close the current fundraising gap will likely be a key factor in deciding the victor in this race.
One thing that must be noted is that polling in this race is likely to be sparse and carried out by smaller local polling outfits as opposed to the traditional large pollsters such as Rasmussen, Quinnipiac or NBC. Bullock is leading Daines by a seven point margin according to a recent Montana State University poll but these results should be taken with a grain of salt. Democratic Senator Jon Tester did win reelection in Montana in 2018, but the general dynamics of the 2020 race are likely to favor Republicans this time around.
On a micro level, conservation, gun rights and natural resources are the major local issues in Montana politics. Observers outside the State must realize that Montana voters are largely not traditional Democrats or Republicans. Each party’s voters in the State buck traditional positions when compared to their respective national parties. Democrats in Montana, for instance, are almost universally pro-gun, while Republicans in the State favor conservation and protection of the environment. Montana’s remoteness and penchant for bucking party norms is likely the reason for why the race has not garnered more attention from those outside of Montana.
Although this is yet another Senate race that has received little attention in the national media, it is important not to underestimate how critical this seat is for both parties. For Democrats, picking up Montana would likely assure their ascent into the majority. As a result, there is more at stake for Republicans in Montana. Democrats can afford for Steve Bullock to lose in Montana since there are other plausible ways to retake the Senate without the State. A loss by Steve Daines, however, would be a devastating blow to Republican chances to hold the Senate.
For these reasons it is more likely that national Republicans will come to the aid of Daines than Democrats will for Bullock. With Bullock’s advantages coming from his retail politicking skills, Daines and Republicans will attempt to nationalize the race at every turn with the hope that Donald Trump’s imminent victory in the State will also pull Daines across the line. Both Daines and Bullock are formidable candidates and are fit in solidly with their State’s electorate. Put together, you should expect to see a campaign as wild and colorful as the Montana landscape.