A Look At Party Switching and Why Jeff Van Drew Will Not Win Re-election As A Republican
On December 14, 2019, it was reported that New Jersey Congressman Jeff Van Drew, a Democrat, would switch parties and become a Republican. The report comes on the heals of Van Drew’s plan to vote against the impeachment of Donald Trump and the rejection of New Jersey Democrat party leaders to immediately support Van Drew’s reelection. While Van Drew, who was elected in 2018, has not officially completed the switch to the Republican party, it is all but a certainty at this point as many of his top staffers have left their positions.
Van Drew’s exodus from the Democratic party will have little implication on the makeup of the House of Representatives as Democrats currently hold a 233 to 197 seat advantage over the Republicans. While Van Drew’s exodus is a small matter it does present an interesting case study on the practicality of switching political parties while in office. Party switching while in office is extremely rare as only eight member of the House and 4 members of the Senate have switched during the last 20 years. Below are the members of Congress who have switched parties while in office.
House Representatives Who Changed Parties While Serving in the Last 20 Years
1. Michael Forbes: New York Representative switched from Republican to Democrat on July 17, 2000. Despite being embraced by national Democrats, Forbes failed to win the backing of local activists due to his positions on abortion. Forbes would go on to lose in the Democrat primary by a mere 35 votes in following cycle to 71-year-old librarian Regina Seltzer.
2. Virgil Goode: Virginia Representative switched from Democrat to Independent on January 27, 2000 and later from Independent to Republican on August 1, 2002. Goode served as an Independent and later Republican until 2008 when he was defeated by Democrat Tom Perriello by 727 votes.
3. Matthew G. Martinez: California Representative switched from Democrat to Republican on July 27, 2000. A long time Democrat, Martinez switched parties after being crushed in the Democrat primary in 2000 by Hilda Solis. Despite switching parties Martinez declined to run as a Republican.
4. Ralph Hall: Texas Representative switched from Democrat to Republican on January 5, 2004. Hall would go on to be reelected as a Republican five times until he was defeated in the Republican primary in 2014 by John Ratcliffe.
5. Rodney Alexander: Louisiana Representative switched from Democrat to Republican on August 9, 2004). Alexander was reelected as a Republican five times and served until his resignation on September 27, 2013.
6. Parker Griffith: Alabama Representative switched from Democrat to Republican on December 22, 2009. Griffith was immediately defeated in the Republican primary by Mo Brooks in following cycle. Griffith later switched back to the Democratic Party in 2014 to unsuccessfully run for Governor of Alabama.
7. Justin Amash: Michigan Representative switched from Republican to Independent on July 4, 2019. After making statements in support of impeaching President Donald Trump, Amash left the Republican party and his 2020 reelection plans remain unclear.
8. Jeff Van Drew: New Jersey Representative will be switching from Democrat to Republican but he has not yet officially done so. Van Drew will face heavy opposition from both Democrats and Republicans in his bid for reelection.
In the last 20 years, five Representatives have switched parties and gone on to face reelection. Two of the five (Michael Forbes and Parker Griffith) were defeated, while three (Virgil Goode, Ralph Hall and Rodney Alexander all served multiple terms with their new party. Matthew G. Martinez switched parties only after he was defeated in the Democrat primary and did not seek reelection as a Republican. Currently, there are two Representatives (Amash and Van Drew) who have switched parties, but have yet to face reelection. It is not yet official at this time if either candidate will run under their new party label.
U.S Senators who have switched parties while in office have also faced mixed results with their new parties. In the list below, Joe Lieberman was the only successful candidate to win reelection after he switched his political affiliation.
Senators Who Changed Parties While Serving in the Last 20 Years
1. Robert Smith: New Hampshire Republican switched from Republican to Taxpayers Party before switching back to the Republican Party in 1999. Smith switched parties for the purpose of running for President during his unsuccessful 2000 bid. After returning to the Republican party Smith was defeated in the Republican primary in 2002.
2. Jim Jeffords: Vermont Senator switched from Republican to Independent on June 6, 2001. This move proved incredibly consequential as Jeffords flipped control of the Senate from Republicans by caucusing with the Democrats. Jeffords retired before facing re-election as an independent and he was succeeded by Bernie Sanders.
3. Joe Lieberman: The Connecticut Senator and former Democrat Vice Presidential nominee switched from Democrat to Independent in 2006 after losing in the Democrat primary. Lieberman got revenge by going on to win re-election as an Independent in 2006 by defeating Ned Lamont. Lamont had defeated Lieberman in the primary but was unsuccessful in wresting the Senate seat away from Lieberman.
4. Arlen Specter: Pennsylvania Republican switched from Republican to Democrat on April 28, 2009. Despite being highly regarded by peers in both parties Specter would go on to lose in the 2010 Democrat primary to Joe Sestak.
Other than Lieberman’s victory, two candidates who switched parties (Smith and Specter) were both defeated in their new Party’s primary. Jim Jeffords also retired before facing reelection meaning that Lieberman is the only recent party switcher to win reelection. Going beyond 20 years, many Senators including Richard Shelby, Strom Thurmond and Ben Campbell, all of whom switched from Democrat to Republican, were successful in winning reelection. In recent years, however, Senators have struggled to win reelection after switching parties.
Jeff Van Drew faces long odds to win reelection as a Republican. While New Jersey’s Second District is one point more Republican than the rest of the U.S. and voted for Donald Trump by a 5-point margin in 2016, Van Drew will face intense opposition. Van Drew’s opponent in the Republican primary may be the well-financed David Richter and Van Drew will have to deal with accusations that he is an opportunist and not a true Republicans.
Democrats will also be sure to have their knives and pitchforks ready against Van Drew if he is to make it through the primary to the general election. Many Democrats who voted for Van Drew in 2018, surely feel betrayed by his switch in party affiliation and will work hard to remove him from office. The anger, resentment and sense of betrayal that many Democratic voters will have for Van Drew should not be underestimated.
Van Drew’s switch to the Republican party appears to be a pure political calculation. Voting against the impeachment of Donald Trump is currently a no-go in the Democratic party and Van Drew’s position on that issue has alienated liberal voters in his District. Van Drew is counting on his own personal brand being enough to transcend political affiliation and that he will have earned good will from Republicans for voting against impeachment.
Overall, I am very skeptical that Van Drew will make it out of the Republican primary let alone with the general election in New Jersey’s Second District. For a candidate to switch parties and be successful he or she must have an incredibly strong brand, personality and monetary backing. Joe Lieberman and Ralph Hall in particular were political veterans and both had strong personal brands that allowed them to win reelection.
Van Drew, as a freshman member of the House, was fairly anonymous until impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump began. Being against impeachment will only get Van Drew so far and he will have to raise an exorbitant amount of money this cycle in order to survive. Jeff Van Drew simply does not yet have a strong enough brand, name recognition or personality to win over a massive number of Republican voters in the primary.
It is highly likely that Jeff Van Drew will be defeated in the Republican primary. He will have to create a new support team since many of his staffers quit and he will have to find new donors to supply him with the necessary funds to win reelection. Van Drew will not be able to rely on many of the donors he previously received money from due to his party switch.
New Jersey’s Second District will move from Safe Democrat to Toss Up due to Van Drew’s change in party affiliation. It is quite likely that there will be two new candidates running for the seat. As a District that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and a Democrat in 2018, the Second District is currently a true Toss Up.