2020 U.S. Senate Prediction
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Pennsylvania appears to be the make or break state in the 2020 cycle. It is almost certain that whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania will also win the election outright. From Philadelphia to the blue collar streets of Pittsburgh to the post-industrial city of Scranton, Pennsylvania contains a diverse array of voters whom Democrats hope will deliver them back the White House. For Joe Biden, Pennsylvania is personal. Biden was born in Scranton and he has made his blue collar roots a focal point of his campaign.
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Make no mistake, Ohio is going to be a tough slog for Joe Biden. Despite some favorable polls coming out in favor of Biden, it is likely that Donald Trump takes Ohio. Of the rust belt states, Ohio is likely to be Trump’s best performing state. Although Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection in 2018, the Democrats also lost the Governor’s race and several winnable Congressional races. In 2016, Donald Trump won Ohio by a 51.69% to 43.56% margin and there has been little indication that the Democrats have made enough inroads since 2016 to retake the state.
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Progressives are seeking to gain momentum in what has largely been a bust of a 2020 campaign season. Kentucky’s primary was initially slated to take place in May but the outbreak of Covid-19 forced the Commonwealth to postpone their contest. While many progressives criticized the postponement at the time, the change in date is absolutely the only reason that Charles Booker has been so competitive in Kentucky.
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McSally’s troubles are partly due to the circumstances of which she became a Senator. McSally was the Republican nominee for Senator in 2018, but was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. After her 2018 defeat, through a number of unique circumstances, McSally was appointed Senator by Republican Governor Doug Ducey to replace John McCain who had died with over four years remaining on his term.
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Few states exhibit an independent streak quite like Montana. In an age of straight ticket voting and increased polarization, Montana is an anomaly that deserves more attention…
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It is almost a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump will lose the popular vote in the 2020 election. Trump is likely to lose the popular vote by an even greater margin than the 2.1% that he lost by in 2016. Large blue states such as California, Illinois, and New York, have swung further away from Republicans and will produce large voter deficits for Trump….
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While other Senate races such as Maine and Arizona have received more attention, perhaps no Senate contest will be more consequential than North Carolina. With Democrats needing a net gain of +4 seats to win back control of the Senate, they will need to win any contest that they possibly can. A few conceivable paths have emerged for Democrats to regain control of the Senate but none of these paths can exist without winning North Carolina….
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In the 2018 Midterm election, Illinois’ 6th Congressional District was one of the most closely watched races in the entire country. The District was only about 2% more Republican than the country, as a whole, and Hillary Clinton won the District on the Presidential level in 2016. Situated in a “C” shape around Chicago’s western suburbs the 6th District was thought to be a bellwether for suburban district across the country and it did not disappoint by almost perfectly mirroring the national vote…
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With its exurban makeup, the 14th Congressional District of Illinois will represent a critical test for Republicans seeking to regain lost ground from the 2018 Midterm elections. The 2020 race between incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood and perennial Republican challenger Jim Oberweis is expected to be one of the tightest races in the country…
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With Joe Biden announcing that he would choose a woman as his running mate, there are five women who stand out as his likeliest choices….
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Millennial voters long served as the backbone of Sanders’ support, and strong turnout among this group was mandatory for his victory. Sanders, however, was unable to turn out younger voters to the polls like he did in 2016, and, comparatively, millennial voters made up a much smaller share of the electorate in 2020… This disparity in turnout among the two age groups had disastrous consequences for Sanders, particularly in Texas.
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With Elizabeth Warren lagging badly in the early primary states, it appeared that Sanders had also overcome the biggest challenge to being “The Candidate” for the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party. It was time for Sanders to hit the accelerator and begin pushing his lagging rivals out of the race entirely. Instead of ramping up, Sanders made the mistake of taking his foot off the gas and wasted what could have been a pivotal moment for his campaign.
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The most closely watched race of the March 10th primaries will no doubt be Michigan. Michigan not only has the largest total of delegates at 125 (36% of the March 10th delegates) but it contains a high amount of symbolism for Bernie Sanders. Sanders pulled off a truly massive upset in Michigan, in 2016, when he overcame a 21-point polling deficit to claim victory over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Sanders once again faces almost the exact same polling deficit…
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Individual previews and predictions for all fourteen Super Tuesday states.
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South Carolina will provide the first true test of Joe Biden’s support among black voters. For the entire 2020 campaign we have heard endlessly about Biden’s strength among black voters. So far, however, Biden has been unable to utilize his support among black voters. Iowa and New Hampshire contained a miniscule number of black voters, while in Nevada, Latinos are the dominant minority group. Now, in the fourth contest of the Democratic Primary, we will finally be able to gauge where black voters stand in the 2020 Primary.
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Although he slightly under-performed in Iowa and New Hampshire relative to his polling numbers, Bernie Sanders is in a solid position to win Nevada and take advantage of the state’s diversity. Recent polling has indicated that Sanders has made significant inroads, in particular, with the Latino population. A Data for Progress poll showed Sanders garnering an impressive 66 percent of the Latino vote. If Sanders does indeed receive this amount of support from Nevada’s robust Latino community, then he will be very difficult to beat.
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Despite the large field, New Hampshire appears destined to be a contest between Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. The top two vote-getters in the Iowa Caucus have also led by a wide margin in recent polling in New Hampshire. Sanders in particular, due to being from neighboring Vermont, has long made winning New Hampshire a priority of his…
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Iowa has highlighted how patently unfair and damaging the current system is for the Democrats… The solution to this damaging system and lack of uniformity is to split the United States into a Regional System. This Regional System would contain five voting regions with ten states each. For five weeks, beginning on the first Tuesday of February, one region and only one region would hold all of their primaries on the same date.
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No Democrat has had a better last three months than Bernie Sanders. After Sanders’ heart attack in early October, 2019, it appeared that his entire campaign might be in jeopardy. Elizabeth Warren was surging in the polls and threatened to take over the mantle as the liberal standard-bearer of the Democratic Party. As evidenced in the polls, at the time, it seemed as if the magic that had carried Sanders in 2016 was beginning to wane. Just three months later, however, Bernie Sanders have firmly established his place as the front runner in the Iowa Caucus.
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